Floods caused by the worst Dana of the 21st century have raised questions about Why did this affect some municipalities more than others?. But the big question on citizens’ minds is, “Would a flood in the future flood the city where I live?” »
The Generalitat Valenciana, since 2015, had already warned municipalities that would present a greater risk of flooding due to torrential rains through certain criteria, ultimately classifying them in what is called Integrated Global Risk (IGR).
The concept is based on some guidelines for determining which municipality has or does not have the highest flood risk. Among the criteria, economic factors (depending on current and potential uses), social (affected population, strategic equipment and linear infrastructure) and environmental factors come into play.
In the document presented by the Generalitat, it is warned that in the Valencian Community There are 216 areas at high risk of flooding due to torrential rains, Alicante, with 8.3%, being the most likely to be affected, ahead of the province of Valencia (6.7%) and Castellón (3.5%), meaning that around 600,000 people who live in the Valencian Community, 11.7% of the total, live with a high risk of danger.
Municipalities most at risk
Thus, the file with a creation date in 2015 executed by the Generalitat, and which is still valid today, warned that 25 municipalities in the Autonomous Community have a flood risk level III or IV (6 localities have this level)they are therefore most likely to suffer significant damage to the population, strategic facilities, economy, environment and infrastructure, although the latter have a lower risk of being affected.
The municipality most at risk of being affected is Algemesimarked at level IV and which has a very high probability of having both an affected population, as well as strategic equipment, linear infrastructure and the environment. On the other hand, it presents a high risk of suffering damage on economic criteria according to current uses and according to potential uses. In this regard, it should be noted that the risk trend is increasing in the said locality.
TAlmoradí, Alzira, Carcaixent, Castellón de la Plana, Catarroja and Orihuela are also at level IV.. In these municipalities, the risk trend continues on an upward line and most, with the exception of Carcaixent, present a very high risk among the affected population.
In alert level III municipalities, the high risk per affected population decreases considerably, excluding Alicante, Denia and Gandía, which are the only ones classified as having this risk.
In most localities the trend is increasing in terms of flood probability, but the towns of Cullera, in Valencia, and Rojales, located in the province of Alicante, stand out.
Almoradí, Alzira, Castellón de la Plana, Orihuela, Alaquás, Callosa de Segura, Catral, Denia, Dolores, Oliva and Valencia, are the localities that have the greatest probability of suffering economic damage, since the current criteria of use and potential are as follows: classified as very high risk. On the other side of the coin is Massanassa, which is the only municipality of the 25 to present a low risk in the two economic criteria to be taken into account.
On the other hand, the municipalities which must have a specific plan to protect the population and their strategic equipmentare Algemesí, Alzira, Castellón de la Plana and Orihuela, because these criteria present a very high risk. Although the bread can be extrapolated to all municipalities, since none of them present a low risk of affected population in the event of torrential rains.
Populations without environmental risks
Integrated Global Risk (IGR) takes into account the environmental criteria of an area which could influence the occurrence or not of a flood. In the analyzed graph it is surprising that two municipalities that are at alert level III, which is the second highest, but which do not present any environmental risk in case of flooding due to torrential rains. The cities mentioned are Daya Nueva and Rafal, both located in the province of Alicante, which is the one with the highest percentage probability of flooding.
The need to protect strategic equipment (notably hospitals or schools) is vital in most cities, except Cullera and Oliva, because they are the only municipalities that present a low risk of damage in the event of torrential rains.
It is for this reason that municipalities, provinces and autonomous communities must remain on alert to try to protect these infrastructures in the event of a warning due to adverse weather conditions.
