Venezuela is approaching a year 2025 that experts consider turbulent and uncertain, with the start of the next six-year presidential term, after the contested re-election of Nicolás Maduro, and the change of government of the United States, with Donald Trump at the bar. , as two of the main events that will influence the economy of the Caribbean country.
According to independent estimates, Venezuela’s GDP will grow next year, although at a lower level compared to 2024, which is expected to be between 3% and 4.5%, well below the official projection of around 10 %.
The company Ecoanalitica predicts that the economy will grow by up to 2.5% in 2025, while inflation will accelerate to 70%, a figure higher than the 50% estimated for the end of 2024. According to the The company’s chief economist, Luis Bárcenas, says the problems will persist. cause the GDP “not to take off”, among them, the deterioration of public services, the lack of bank loans, the “aggressive” and “very repressive” tax system and the still “little” economic diversification, despite the efforts of authorities. to defeat “oil rentism”.
A “doubly dangerous” 2025
On January 10, as provided for in the Constitution, the inauguration ceremony of the winner of the presidential elections of July 28 will take place, during which President Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner by the National Electoral Council (CNE) for a third semester. one-year mandate, which the majority opposition – which insists on the victory of its candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia – considers a fraud. Maduro and González Urrutia, exiled in Spain, insist they will be sworn in as president.
Bárcenas assures that there is uncertainty about what will happen inside and outside the country and, above all, about how the United States will conduct its foreign policy with Venezuela, subject to oil sanctions , although according to a less strict pattern than two years ago. . “Next year will be very complex, and not only very complex, but also uncertain, which is doubly dangerous,” the expert said in statements to EFE.
For his part, the economist Luis Oliveros, the word “uncertainty” marks 2025, mainly due to the future of oil licenses granted by Washington – which does not recognize Maduro’s proclaimed victory – to transnationals, key players in production of Venezuelan crude oil, which increased. 23.7% in one year, going from 762,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September 2023 to 943,000 bpd last year. “We will have growth if these licenses are maintained, but (…) if they leave at the beginning of the year, it is an economy that falls into recession,” revealed Oliveros. If these permits are maintained, Ecoanalítico estimates that production will reach its “ceiling”, which it estimates at one million b/d.
Even greater dependence on oil
According to experts, Venezuela today depends “more than ever” on crude oil to keep its currency – the bolivar – and its prices stable, because its anti-inflationary policy consists, to a large extent, of injecting crude oil into the market. currencies, mainly from oil revenues, in order to generate an oversupply of dollars, used as a benchmark for quoting goods and services.
In this sense, Bárcenas warned that the entry of resources could be affected depending on “the position that the United States will adopt with regard to Venezuela” and whether or not “internal political and institutional instability” persists. », worsened after the July elections.
He therefore explained that, if there were problems in the generation of foreign currencies, there would be a risk of facing an “increase in the cost of living”, which would affect the Venezuelan wallet and, therefore, therefore, the “recovery capacity”. ” of spending that stimulates economic growth.
Faced with this scenario, he believes that the country must show the domestic and foreign market “a desire to change things or correct economic policy errors”, which “can attract investments and open doors that many may consider closed », in addition to encouraging that the United States “do not adopt such a radical attitude”.
A “new beginning” in Venezuela’s relations with the United States
Maduro wished Trump success in his administration and in his goal of ending wars in which the United States is involved in one way or another. “I hope Trump will end the wars (…) Venezuela has its own identity and its own history and shares values with the people of the United States and one of those values is that we say no to war,” he said. according to the portal Últimas Noticias. The former president defended that during his previous term, “there were no wars, apart from the defeat of the Islamic State in record time.” “They say I’m going to start a war, but I won’t. I’m going to stop wars,” he said. “We will keep our promises,” he concluded.
The Venezuelan president said Wednesday that Donald Trump’s new step could generate a “new beginning” in his relations with Venezuela. “In his first administration, re-elected President Donald Trump, it did not go well for us, this is a new start for us to bet on win-win and things to go well for the United States and that things are going well for Venezuela,” Maduro said during a YouTube show about the future of your country.
“I wish him good luck in his government” and “Nicolás Maduro Moros, re-elected constitutional president of Venezuela, will always be there, always ready to maintain positive relations with the United States and the whole world,” Maduro said.
“I wish him good luck in his government” and “Nicolás Maduro Moros, re-elected constitutional president of Venezuela, will always be there, always ready to maintain positive relations with the United States and the whole world,” he added .
In the same vein, many are wondering what the next Trump administration’s strategy will be with regard to Venezuela, after having tried, unsuccessfully, during its first term, to ignore President Nicolas Maduro by recognizing his opponent Juan Guaidó as legitimate president.
Michael Shifter, a renowned expert who chaired the Inter-American Dialogue, a hemispheric analysis center based in Washington DC, said he does not rule out that Trump seeks with Maduro something similar to what he did with Kim Jong-un, thus doing a 180 degree and changing their approach to the Caribbean country.
“Trump will have to deal with Venezuela. His policy during his first term failed: he bet on Guaidó, it did not work and Maduro was strengthened. “So maybe Trump is not interested in trying again what didn’t work well in his first term, taking a very tough stance and implementing economic sanctions that failed,” he said. he told the BBC.
In this line he does not exclude that he does “trying to accommodate the Maduro regime and seeking an agreement, perhaps on the issue of immigration, which is close to his heart. And also give your friends the opportunity to do business in Venezuela and earn good money. There are possibilities to do this,” he concludes.
