Impulses, games of domination and attacks have outlined the preludes to the next European legislature. In recent weeks, the political tensions that Ursula von der Leyen will have to juggle during her second term as head of the European Commission have emerged and become evident. This work, everything indicates, will begin on December 1, as planned, and will be structured from a series of pillars in which EU competitiveness, transition to clean technologiestrade relations with China and the United States and Trump’s return to the White House are among European priorities.
The vision of a new European Commission mandate on December 1 has almost been derailed over the past two weeks. The evaluation of the third vice-president of the government, Teresa Ribera, and of Giorgia Meloni’s candidate, Raffaele Fitto, have complicated the negotiations between the main political forces of the European Parliament to the point of putting the entire composition of the next elections at stake. . College of commissioners, as well as the start date of their jobs.
The new parliamentary arithmetic, tilted to the right with the entry of new ultra-conservative forces, has led to a loss of confidence within the traditional coalition made up of popularists, socialists and liberals. A disagreement which was resolved by a commitment to work for a pro-European majority. From a practical point of view, the Von der Leyen Commission will have to deal with major issues as a priority, both economic and political, and this will depend on this stability. As a guarantee, maintain this difficult political balance becomes a priority of the new German mandate.
On the economic level, the greatest urgency perhaps lies in strengthening the competitiveness of the community bloc. THE the urgency is imposed by the deployment of subsidies both in China and in the United States, especially for the cleantech industry. But also the road map drawn up by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who estimates the needs at 800 billion euros per year and opens the door to a new common debt issue at community level.
It is no secret that mobilizing financial resources to achieve this objective will be one of the major challenges for lawmakers. “The European Commission must decide on the strategic proposal with the resources available at national and European level”; indicates Bruegel expert André Sapir. In this sense, it is not only a question of promoting the union of the capital market, but also of channeling private investments and determining how to articulate public investments. “including national and community budgets.”
Competitiveness is one of the priorities that, according to the expert, should be anchored from the start of the mandate because the problem is not new. It has been an endemic evil in the bloc’s economy for 40 years. Green technologies must channel European energy production, not only for Europe, but also for the intentions of the new American administration of Donald Trump.
If the Republican has announced his ambition to encourage the extraction of more natural gas and oil, Europe, even if it wants it, does not have these resources.. “We have little oil and natural gas”underlines the expert Bruegel. It is for this reason that it is necessary to move forward in the deployment of renewable energies, which was one of the commitments made by the head of the Community Executive during her first 100 days in office.
Politically, the scenario of geopolitical instability and uncertainty reflects a more complicated world. A world in which the EU must be less dependent on its traditional allies, such as the United States, in military and defense matters. “It’s a long-term career, it won’t be done in five years“, specifies Sapir. But what is certain is that the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East open up great unknowns and set the EU in motion. We must also continue to support kyiv, in a conflict in in which China fails to position itself against Moscow and in which North Korea begins to take sides.
The development of a European industrial strategy will therefore be a priority in a scenario of vigorous competition. What must be overcome is this national vision of industrial policy to formulate a community perspective that allows competition at the global level, “with national and European instruments”, » underlines Sapir, pointing to a less “friendly” world than that of recent years.
Washington and Beijing
The context is difficult, the bloc’s resources are limited, countries are accumulating high debt and their populations are continuing to age. Trump’s return to the White House, while offering some predictability, casts a shadow over the relationship the EU may have with its largest trading partner. THE threat of customs duties of up to 20% on EU products That doesn’t exactly leave Von der Leyen with many more resources than needed to diversify the bloc’s business associations.
Furthermore, Brussels must pay attention to the repercussions that change in Washington could have on global dynamics. The Republican’s promise is also to impose customs duties of up to 60% on imports from China. The context is simple, in reality, it will be a question of slowing down the economy of the Asian giant. But the implications of such a move go further: Brussels will have to manage this Chinese exports that do not go to the United States are redirected to the EU and, furthermore, the blow this will bring to the Community economy.
The positive note comes from the replacement of the presidency of the Council of the EU. The politician Charles Michel passes the baton to the former Portuguese prime minister and the tension that characterized the relationship between the Belgian politician and German company divides in the name of strong leadership able to agree with the Commission.
The first 100 days of German women’s mandate
In his July speech presenting the priorities of his mandate, Von der Leyen mentioned the creation of a European Defense Union, a commissioner responsible for housing or even the reduction of bureaucracy to gain competitiveness. The Clean Industry Pact is another of the commitments mentioned in connection with competition with other major world powers. He also recommended stimulate public and private investment in housing, by allocating a larger amount to security and defense and creating the figure of a commissioner responsible for this last segment.
