The European Commission published its latest economic forecasts on Friday, November 15. In the next two years it expects new growth, although it will remain modest. It also highlights the many challenges that await the Union and which could further reduce its economic performance. In front of them, judge, in an interview in WorldPaolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Europeans must act. “It’s now or never”said.
European growth remains slow. So that ?
It could have been much worse. At the end of 2022, Europe was in recession. In 2023, it was stagnant. Today growth has returned, at a very limited rate, it is true, but it has returned. Consumption has not yet recovered, although household purchasing power has improved with falling inflation. The savings rate remains abnormally high, mainly due to current uncertainties such as the return of war. Likewise, private investment is not up to par, it has not returned to its pre-pandemic levels.
Mario Draghi, in his report on competitiveness, asks Europeans to act without delay, otherwise the Union, in full economic decline, would be, he says, condemned to a “slow agony.” Do you share this diagnosis?
We are experiencing the end of a European illusion, the illusion of cheap energy thanks to Russian gas, of a Chinese market open without limits to our exports and of the security provided by the United States.
Isn’t what you describe rather a German illusion?
No. It is a European illusion in which Germany was the main actor. More than other Member States, it must now increase its defense spending. More than others, given the size of its industry, it has suffered from rising energy prices. More than others, it is exposed to threats of protectionism from the United States and China. These are challenges that concern all Europeans but to which Germany is most exposed.
The war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, the election of Donald Trump… Europe is surrounded. What can she do?
These threats should act as a wake-up call, prompting us to act. It’s now or never, in a way. But the problem is those who should raise this alarm bell. France [avec un gouvernement sans majorité] and germany [où des élections sont prévues en février 2025] They find themselves in precarious situations. This gives the Commission and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, an even greater responsibility.
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