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“We are preparing for the worst scenario”

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“We are preparing for the worst scenario”

When the European Union was created, then the euro zone (the countries which share a currency), we already knew that very different countries were uniting (a mosaic made up of tiles of different shapes and colors, very difficult to assemble). This has generated some problems when it comes to advancing and implementing homogeneous policies for countries with such different propensities in terms of consumption, savings or public spending. Further evidence of the cultural distance between EU countries can be seen in each nation’s contingency plans to cope with what is now beginning to be seen as a new, more unstable, more dangerous and more uncertain world. In the north, citizens and governments began stockpiling supplies (large quantities of cereals) for unforeseen circumstances, in the south the countries let themselves go.

The countries of the North and the Baltic have long denounced the threat weighing on their borders, but also the challenges posed by a more unstable and multipolar world. Now, governments, central banks and Companies in these countries are leading the way in storing grain and medical supplies. emergency situation, making the financial system more resilient, while households stockpile canned food and iodine tablets. War is not the only thing worrying the Nordic and Baltic countries. The pandemic, climate change… many fronts are open in a world that seems more “crazy” every day.

“However, Finland talks a lot about this 72-hour preparation on television, on social networks, in newspapers; I have even heard that in schools, they teach this to children,” Lotta said this week -Sofia Saahko, 31 years old. old, a writer who lives in Valkeakoski, a town in southern Finland. “Now it’s very much in the media, and it’s definitely changed my way of thinking,” he said. Bloomberg.

A few days ago it was also revealed that Poland has increased its grain reserves to a record level, aiming to boost food security in the face of possible supply disruptions caused by extreme weather conditions or geopolitical events. The National Reserves Agency (which does not disclose the exact size or location of the stockpiles) has held strategic stockpiles for decades. This is despite the fact that the country is a net exporter of cereals and currently has abundant supplies, particularly following the increase in cross-border flows from Ukraine, the Russian invasion having hampered kyiv’s maritime exports.

“Poland has maintained strategic reserves of food, including grain, for as long as I can remember,” Agnieszka Bogucka, director of the Polish Strategic Reserves Agency, said in an interview last week. “But we have never had strategic grain reserves as large as those we have today”.

These stockpiles highlight the multiple threats to food security, from bad weather that damages crops to problems in supply chains caused by wars or pandemics. They are also another example of the government’s efforts to prepare for possible crises. Finland also stores grain, while Sweden plans to replenish its seed and fertilizer reserves.

It’s not all war

Some of these moves may seem alarmist, but executives consulted by Bloomberg explain that the scenarios are varied and more likely than in the past: they include natural disasters due to climate change, power outages and international cyberattacks, and not only a war. Preparation also means a lot. Saahko, who lives with her grandfather, says they have two five-liter jugs of water and have started shopping differently in order to have enough cans of pea soup and crusty bread.

Swedish authorities give advice on evacuation, how to stop bleeding and how to talk to children about the war. And then there’s the bigger picture. In the neighboring country, Norway is reactivating its grain reserves and increasing its storage capacities.

Lithuania’s largest retailer Maxima has planned for its supermarkets to remain open in case communications are disrupted, while Your warehouses have a list of essential products to stock. Poland’s parliament passed a law this month requiring local authorities to keep enough food and water, also for 72 hours. Other measures include an evacuation system and the construction of shelters.

Denmark prepares for total blackout

In Denmark, The government created a crisis ministry this year and also began advising people to store food and water for 72 hours. But for the financial system, this is not enough. The central bank is at the forefront of a system that will allow Danes, from next year, to continue using their cards to buy food and medicine for a week in the event of a power cut. electricity or Internet.

Work is underway with retailers, banks and payment companies to extend from three to seven days the time that people can make card transactions offline, said Ulrik Nodgaard, deputy governor. Retailers and banks have agreed to share the cost of any fraudulent activity equally, and other countries have expressed interest in using this as a model, the politician says.

“It’s about preparing for worst-case scenarios, and we weren’t comfortable saying that an outage certainly couldn’t last more than three days,” Nodgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen last week. . Since Russia annexed Crimea ten years ago, The Baltic States and Poland have become the largest “investors” in the defense of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. in proportion to their economy. Finland and Sweden, long outside military alliances, joined NATO after Vladimir Putin began his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Lithuania has also actively sought to host emergency medical supplies. Last year it received the green light from the European Commission to create a large warehouse as part of a plan to have 22 national reserves in 16 EU member states. In addition to defense, energy supplies and pharmaceuticals, emphasis was placed on food. While countries like Poland, Romania and Slovakia maintained their stockpiles after the Cold War, others dismantled them.

Finland also stores large quantities of grain, and for good reason. A third of its territory is located in the Arctic Circle, which explains its short growing season and history of famine. The grain crisis of 1917 sparked the first efforts to secure an adequate supply, and a public granary was founded 11 years later.

Northern countries are thrifty, frugal and prudent. If nothing happens, these efforts will have been in vain. But if one of the proposed scenarios ends up coming true, these “alarmist” countries will be ready to survive, while in the south, we will have to continue living day by day, as tradition dictates.

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