The Barcelona Stock Exchange was the scene of the IEF&BFS Market Forecast, an event organized by the Barcelona School of Financewhere the impact of various geopolitical and economic factors on the markets in the last quarter of 2024, the presidential elections in the United States, the evolution of inflation and the monetary policies of the main central banks, as well as the investment opportunities. in an uncertain environment.
Inflation under control
Marc Ciria, from Diagonal Asset Management, stressed that although inflation appears to be under control, the 2% target will not be reached in 2024. He stressed that more measures will be needed and that there should be no complacency. expect quick solutions. According to Ciria, the United States maintains growth of 2 to 3 percent, while Europe barely exceeds 1 percent, with Germany stagnating and China slowing, with growth of 4.7 percent.
Despite these data, the strength of consumption in the United States and Europe was highlighted, even if other economic indicators show signs of weakness. Regarding China, Ciria stressed that although we cannot speak of a recession, investments in the country generate losses. This complex situation calls for caution on the part of investors.
Concerning monetary policy, it stands out the role of the Federal Reserve to balance inflation and employment, even if he warned against the risks of dropping interest rates too quickly. It was highlighted that the fixed income market, particularly corporate bonds, offers opportunities, but that sharp movements in short-term interest rates should not be expected.
Long-term improvement
Dídac Pérez, from Caixa Enginyers, spoke about the moderation of global economic growth after the pandemic, especially in Europe. However, he projected an improvement towards 2024-2025, stressing that inflation is gradually decreasing thanks to monetary policies. Even though European companies have seen their margins decline, a recovery in profits is expected in the medium term.
Pérez also mentioned that, despite the overheating of markets, valuations remain attractive, particularly in emerging sectors such as renewable energy and luxury. Companies are better managing their capital, which suggests an improvement in their future profitability.
Protecting heritage in a time of change
For his part, Juan Carlos Canudo, of Solventis, suggested that investors should Maintain equity exposure to protect against inflation in the long term. Historically, this type of assets has demonstrated greater resistance to monetary changes, although valuations are currently more demanding.
Canudo recommended diversifying portfolios with more fixed-income securities, noting that bonds offer attractive returns that can outpace inflation over the medium term. With more moderate expectations for equities, fixed income presents itself as a viable option for achieving sustainable profits.
Finally, the experts present at the event agreed on the importance of prudent management investments in the face of current challenges. Attention has focused on sectors such as renewable energy and financial assets such as corporate bonds, which are emerging as key elements for investment decisions in the coming months.
