With the exception of the wholesale dollar, which fell by 1% to 1165 dollars, all other dollars worked almost unchanged. Blue barely fell from 1205 to $ 1,200, while the official dollar of the investigation, which the Central Bank is carried out at $ 1195, above MEP, which costs $ 1173.
Gross reserves fell by 181 million dollars. USA, 39 098 million dollars. The United States to read the portfolio with banks that are produced at the end of the month, and then recovered at the beginning of the month.
The truth is that after the operated wheels you begin to see the exchange market with more stable flows. Internal volatility is reduced and is in the amount of 1070 to 1210 US dollars, which are minimal and maximum values that it has been controlled in the intra -attack from the moment of shares, according to MEGAQM analysts.
Sub-Band
“Given the exchange rate operating in the sub-bands, from 1070 to $ 1210, and with less and smaller and smaller inside daily volatility, appetite to the exchange coating decreases. In turn, we expect that he soon realizes the new phase of Breopala, which would take the requirement from assets in dollars, ”they expect.
After the start of flotation, he began to return liquidity to the fund. In any case, two -thirds of the flows of the year are explained by the “world of the dollar.”
To the extent that the exchange market stabilizes, probably a clearer balance will be seen in other assets. They especially expect that the speed segment will be normal in Peso.
The decrease in the first wheels was very strong, covering both long segments, which was expected; As short, which was less expected.
Agriculture
In the coming weeks, you should see the effect of a greater seasonal offer of agricultural dollars. If the effect is a significant drop in the exchange rate, it would often be seen by new flows of the dollar for the portfolio.
At the moment, they see opportunities at a fixed rate for as long as possible, that is, December 2026, and since then in the CER segment. Both options are considered as measures of winners in dollars.
Cash management
After several weeks of volatility, investors continue to show mainly a conservative look. The industry of general investment funds continues to grow in the field of transaction business management.
Positive flows in the money market in dollars were explained by 43% of the total industry in the first months of the year. Everything for a category that barely explains 3.4% of total assets running. The opening of shares, no doubt, brings more flow in foreign currency.
“The hard dollar curve is also an opportunity for this temporary horizon, although we continue to say that drivers for the next jump and fall in country risk are located only in June or October,” they say.
Reducing the rate
Injection of the Treasury liquidity, rising by 70%, can lead to an additional decrease in some interest rates in Peso. The decision to transfer BCRA profit to the Treasury gives the margin of “financing” the growth of real demand for money without a significant impact on the rate.
The decision on the transfer of profit changed the view of interest rates. Without liquidity, real indicators could look for a higher equilibrium point.
Meanwhile, high -frequency data foresee the inflation rate in April about 3.3% and 3.6%. This range is lower than the initial expectations, but above interest rates. Again, the former post, short bets will be negative.
The middle and long stretching has the edge to lower and seeks a balance point with a hard dollar curve at a level below the current distribution. The arbitration point between the fixed rate and the CER curve for 2026 corresponds to inflation from 1.5% to 1.2%.
