“On January 10, 2025, President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia will be sworn in as Constitutional President of Venezuela and Commander-in-Chief of the National Armed Forces.” This phrase is from María Corina Machado, leader of the Venezuelan opposition. She published it on her X account on Sunday afternoon, when the plane in which González Urrutia was traveling landed at the Torrejón de Ardoz military base.
The Venezuelan opponent had left Venezuela for Spain thanks to a safe conduct and after spending more than a month protected in the Dutch embassy. Since September 2, an arrest warrant has been issued against him, promoted by the Venezuelan prosecutor’s office.
“I have decided to leave Venezuela and settle in Spain, whose government I deeply appreciate for welcoming and protecting me at this time. I also thank the Dutch embassy in Venezuela. I made this decision thinking about Venezuela and the fact that our destiny as a country cannot, must not be one of conflict of pain and suffering,” said the opposition candidate in the last elections of July 28, in a statement released Monday.
Since the election, the opposition has claimed that González Urrutia was the winner and should take office on January 10, and has released partial electoral records to defend its position.
Several countries, such as Argentina and Panama, have recognized him as the elected president; while others consider him the winner but hesitate to go further, such as the United States, and others, such as those of the EU, Brazil and Colombia, are demanding the publication of the minutes without granting victory to anyone.
At the same time, Nicolas Maduro, the current president, was declared the winner by the Venezuelan electoral body on July 28, although to date he has not yet published the minutes of this count. This Monday, In his weekly television show, he said he respected the opposition leader’s decision. to leave the Caribbean nation for Spain. “I can tell Ambassador González Urrutia in Madrid, I tell him: my respect for your decision, all my respect for the decision you have made.”
Now that the opposition leader is in exile, the question is what will happen to anti-Chavismo in Venezuela in the next four months?
The government’s strategy against the opposition
When it was announced that González Urrutia would be granted asylum in Spain, the vice president of the Venezuelan government, Delcy Rodríguez, published the news on her Instagram account, almost at the same time that the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, did the same. in X.
Rodriguez assured that Maduro’s executive had processed the safe passages and that there was an agreement with the Spanish government to authorize the departure of the opponent. Foreign Minister Albares, for his part, denied that there was “political compensation”, an accusation made by Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP.
“The government believes it is dealing a blow to the spirit” of the opposition, Carmen Beatriz Fernández, a Venezuelan expert in political communication and professor at the University of Navarra, explains to elDiario.es.
Fernandez assures that it is no coincidence that Gonzalez’s departure was announced in this way, while other opponents are taking refuge in the former Argentine embassy under the surveillance of the Chavista security forces. “They grant it because they believe that by doing so they gain space in a narrative logic that leads to demoralization,” he explains.
César Bátiz, Media Director The Pitazoconsiders that the departure of Edmundo González Urrutia “has hit the morale” of the opposition, it serves the narrative of the government, which tried to withdraw the support of his people to make him leave,” he assures this media.
Bátiz remembers that since the beginning of August, González Urrutia’s public appearances were non-existent: “You couldn’t hear him, you couldn’t see him, and now we learn that he is in the Dutch embassy.”
Machado’s role
Over the past month, the opposition has continued to mobilize around María Corina Machado. The opposition leader has said: “Edmundo will fight from outside alongside our diaspora and I will continue to do so here, alongside you.”
She was the one who led González Urrutia’s electoral campaign and transferred her political capital to him after she was disqualified and could not participate in the elections. And she was also the one who continued to participate in the mass demonstrations, the one who gave interviews and the one who constantly affirmed that the elections had been won by the opposition, with 1,793 arrests recorded since September 7.
Anna Ayuso, researcher for Latin America at think tank CIDOB claims that Machado’s role is to maintain the opposition’s discourse. But let’s remember in any case that “to take possession, if the situation were to arise, it is he (González Urrutia) who would have to return to Venezuela. And he has an arrest warrant.
Possible scenarios
The next four months will define Venezuela’s political future. For the opposition, the challenge will be not to lose strength with its representative in exile. And for the government, to get rid of the pressure from the United States, the European Union and Latin American countries that do not recognize the election result of July 28.
Carmen Beatriz Fernandez sees several possible scenarios.
The first is that Maduro remains in power, which could lead some countries not to recognize his proclamation of January 10 – with the reminder of the consequences of the international recognition of the self-proclaimed Juan Guaidó, which could discourage a similar decision with Edmundo González –. and the mobilization of the opposition. Fernández considers that a “political transition” could occur with “instability, civil unrest, revolts and even coups d’état.”
Another scenario, in which some Latin American countries are working – Brazil, Colombia – is that “in these four months, an agreement is reached in which the ruling party protects the transition.” Thus, according to Fernández, the hypothesis could be the following: “Maduro resigns and the president of the assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, takes power, and González Urrutia takes office in January.”
Anna Ayuso, for her part, considers that “there are anti-Maduro Chavista sectors” and affirms that “the danger in this situation is that it happens like in Nicaragua“.
César Bátiz adds: “There are people in the ruling party who tell Maduro that it will become difficult because of the economic situation, which will influence greater migration to other countries.”
International pressures and negotiations
To define the course of these four months, negotiations with the Maduro government will remain key.
“It will depend on establishing a negotiation process in which government factors convince Maduro that the transition is his best option. Today, it does not seem that this is the most likely case. Maduro seems very determined not to give in voluntarily,” says Fernández.
“January 10 is the crucial point,” recalls Bátiz, who sees another possible scenario: “Maduro’s departure may be the result of a negotiation in favor of repeating the elections.” This was one of the solutions presented in mid-August by Brazil and Colombia, which proposed a transitional coalition government and new elections with guarantees.
“International pressure is expected to increase. Sanctions are expected from the United States and other countries against officials, their relatives and front men. This would affect Maduro’s economic support,” the journalist adds.
Ayuso concludes that “the opposition will try to lead the battle by putting pressure from outside.” But he anticipates: “At this point, it is very difficult for the Maduro government to take a step back.”
