Iran’s attack on Israel on October 1 drastically changed the situation in the region and raised alarms about the possible expansion of the conflict. According to Igor Tyshkevich, leading Russia expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, such Iranian actions were a response to Israeli attacks on targets in Lebanon, which led to a massive missile attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). ) in Israeli territory.
As the expert notes, at least 400 ballistic missiles were fired, which for the first time in decades led to the destruction of supposedly important objects on Israeli territory, despite the operation of the Iron Dome air defense system.
Tyshkevich believes that such an escalation will certainly force Israel to counterattack, which could lead to the start of a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. Furthermore, it emphasizes that regional security, previously supported by tacit agreements, has been destroyed and the parties now act without restrictions.
The expert also draws attention to the risk of the conflict worsening, since there is no common border between Iran and Israel. This implies the need to involve other countries to carry out ground operations. In turn, Iran will turn to the Islamic world for support, while Israel will demand help from the United States and European countries.
Furthermore, Tyszkiewicz points out that what happened could be the end of the US plan to create an axis of cooperation between Türkiye, Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It also suggests that Iraq will find itself in a difficult situation where it will have to choose between supporting the United States and Iran, which could lead to a new round of the Iran-Iraq conflict.
Economic and geopolitical projects such as the North-South transport corridor, planned through India, Iran, the Caucasus and Russia, are also at risk of being suspended. India and Scandinavian countries may be reluctant to engage with Iran in the current environment.
Tyszkiewicz is also focusing on the Caucasus, where the confrontation between Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Armenia could intensify depending on whether Türkiye becomes involved in the conflict. If Ankara takes an active position, this could lead to increased pressure on Yerevan and a change in the political situation in Armenia.
Recall that on October 1, the Israeli army intercepted 180 ballistic missiles fired by Iran, while Tehran announced the use of hypersonic missiles and the destruction of several Israeli military facilities.
Previously, Kursor reported which missiles Iran launched against Israel.
Iran used three types of ballistic missiles to attack Israel.
