What would the agreement between Israel and Hezbollah mean? Will it work?

US President Joe Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron could announce this Tuesday evening a ceasefire to end the fighting between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, which will come into force on Wednesday.

The Biden administration, wary of a regional escalation that could draw in Hezbollah’s main ally, Iran, has been seeking a truce for months. The conflict began 13 months ago, when Lebanon’s powerful militia began firing rockets and projectiles into Israel a day after the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 and began the Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Israel’s security cabinet is due to meet Tuesday afternoon to vote on the proposal, which is expected to be approved despite opposition from Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right allies.

Of course, while this is happening, Israel continues to launch large-scale airstrikes on Beirut.

Do we know the details of the agreement?

The agreement follows the contours of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 36-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, but was never fully implemented.

The Israeli army is expected to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah will withdraw its heavy weapons north of the Litani River, about 25 km north of the border. During a 60-day transition phase, the Lebanese army would deploy into the buffer zone alongside the current UN peacekeeping force. Old border disputes will be discussed after the 60-day withdrawal period.

The process will be monitored by a monitoring mechanism led by the United States, which will act as arbiter in the event of violations. A letter of guarantee that is not formally part of the deal would guarantee U.S. support for Israeli freedom of action if Hezbollah attacks Israel again or moves its forces or weapons south of the Litani.

Is this likely to work?

Israel appears to have come to the table following warnings from Washington that if a ceasefire was not agreed, the United States would not veto a UN Security Council resolution imposing a ceasefire under worse conditions for Israel.

On Monday, the vice-president of the Lebanese Parliament, Elias Bou Saab, declared that “there are no serious obstacles” to the implementation of the truce, and the New York Times reported this week that the deal had the approval of Hezbollah supporters in Iran. Tehran wants to avoid a further deterioration of its main deterrent force against Israel.

Israel could benefit from the opportunity to rest its ground forces and reservists, as well as repair and replenish its munitions and stockpiles. It also helps that the United States, its main ally, participates directly in mediation related to violations of the agreement.

What is the situation on the ground?

Intense fighting has taken place in recent days as both sides attempt to consolidate their gains.

Israel this week carried out heavy airstrikes on the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and throughout the south of the country.

Hezbollah, for its part, fired more than 200 rockets at Israel on Sunday, one of the most intense attacks since the start of the war.

The conflict intensified in late September, when hundreds of you are looking for of Hezbollah exploded during an Israeli attack. Similarly, Israel killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership in airstrikes around this time and launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

Some 3,700 people have died in fighting in Lebanon and 126 in Israel. Hundreds of thousands of people on both sides of the blue line have been forced to leave their homes.

And a ceasefire in the war in Gaza?

For Israelis, it is important that Hezbollah has given up demanding that the ceasefire in Lebanon be conditional on an end to the fighting in Gaza.

Since the failure of the Gaza truce in November 2023, ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly failed. Qatar, one of the main mediators between Israel and Hamas, announced earlier this month that it was abandoning its role until both sides showed “willingness and seriousness” in the talks.

Resettlement or permanent reoccupation of Gaza is not an open policy of Israel, but senior defense officials recently told the Haaretz newspaper that the government intends to annex large areas of the territory instead of negotiating the end of the war.