The Iranian opposition is faced with important problems in the conditions of regional tension and internal divisions. Despite the growing economic and political pressure, as well as the growing criticism of the regime, Iranian public opinion reluctantly does not want to openly ask for its overthrow.
The internal and external opposition groups of Iran are faced with the decisive moment in the middle of the regional military escalation, but they are still divided and do not want to begin mass actions at this time, despite their aversion from the ruling regime.
Israel begins attacks on the Iranian safety apparatus, while Kurgi and separatist Belugai groups in border regions are preparing for the situation inside.
The Islamic Republic today is more fragile than after the 1979 revolution, but any real problem for its government will require a wide popular uprising, which is still being discussed between opposition forces.
In an interview with the media this week, the groove of the Pakhlavi, the son of the deceased Sha, who lives in the United States, announced his desire to lead the political transition and called the current situation as a “historical opportunity” to change the regime.
For his part, the prime minister is a minister of Israel, Benjamin NetanyahuHe emphasized that the cessation of the Iranian regime is one of the goals of the war, noting that Israel was “rushing to their freedom”, in a message to the Iranian people.
In Iran, where the regime was accustomed to suppress dissent, the forces of the Basiju announced that they had established their units for vigilance. Mohammad Amin, a member of the Basija forces in the city of Kum, said that his unit warns as much as possible “to destroy Israeli spies and protect the regime.”
Activists noted that Israeli attacks, although they pointed out security structures that crushed previous protests, caused fear and confusion among ordinary citizens who expressed their anger to both sides, Iranian and Israeli languages.
Activist Aten Damimi, Who spent six years in Iranian prisons before leaving the country, said: “How can you expect people to come out? In such terrible circumstances, people care only about themselves, their families, their friends, and even for their pets. ”
The winner of the Nobel Prize of the World, Narzhe Mohammadi, repeated Damimi’s comments by writing in the publication on social networks in response to Israeli’s call for civilians about the evacuation of Tehran: “Do not destroy my city.”
Two Iranian activists who were among hundreds of thousands of people who participated in mass protests two years ago after death Mahsa Amini In custody, they expressed the lack of will to participate in new protests.
Student of the University of Shiraz (who retains his personality in reserve from the fear of repression), said: “When the blows ends, we will raise our voices because this regime is responsible for the war.”
Another who lost his place at the university and was imprisoned five months after the protests of 2022, added that he believes in a change of regime, but there is no time to go into the streets.
He emphasized that she and her friends do not plan to organize or join the marches, and rejected calls from the border in order to demonstrate, noting that “Israel and the so -called opposition leaders abroad only think about their own interests.”
Among the main opposition forces outside Iran-Mek, the revolutionary faction, which played an important role in the 1970s and was widely criticized for an alliance with Iraq during the war between Iran and Iraq (1980-1988). Mek was also accused of abuses in his camps, which the organization denies.
Maryam Rajavi, who presides in the National Resistance Council of Iran (CNRI), agencies associated with some Western politicians, confirmed its deviation from any return to the monarchy during the forum in Paris this week. “Neither Sha, nor mode “, Confirmed.
The internal support level for these opposition groups remains uncertain. While some of them have long been locals, the majority of Iranian young people do not remember this today.
They will witness many waves of national protests on various issues: in 2009, citizens protested against what they called the “theft of the presidential election.”
In 2017, protests were concentrated on difficult living conditions, while in 2022 women of protest about the death of Mahs Amini broke out.
The world Hossein MusaviThe former presidential candidate accused of fraud in the 2009 elections was under house arrest for many years and now he is 83 years old. This requires system reform instead of its overthrow, the goal expressed by many protesters in subsequent movements.