While the November 2024 presidential campaign appears to be one of the closest in contemporary American history, its outcome may not be known until late. As in 2020, when Joe Biden’s victory was announced three and a half days after the polling stations closed, it is unlikely that the identity of the future tenant of the White House will be known on the night of November 5-6. A delay that could be explained in particular by the importance of voting by mail, the counting of which is traditionally slower than that of traditional ballots.
Mail voting expected to remain high
During the last two national elections (2020 and 2022), mail-in voting featured prominently in the American electorate, particularly due to the Covid-19 pandemic. During the 2020 presidential election, 65.64 million votes were mailed, almost double the number in 2016 (33.5 million).
Now that health risks are significantly lower, the number of mail-in votes is expected to decline this year, as was seen in 2022 during the midterm elections. But it should remain high in several states where the practice has been common for many years.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: a long recount and the risk of a “red mirage”
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are two of seven swing states that will determine the outcome of the presidential election. They are also those whose final results should take longer to be announced. In these two states, the electoral code requires that the counting of postal votes begin when the polling stations open, that is, at 7 a.m. on Tuesday (local time).
In 2020, in Pennsylvania, most national media waited three and a half days before they could confidently attribute the state’s nineteen electoral votes to Joe Biden and the Democrat’s victory nationally. In this state, the proportion of votes by mail, very marginal in 2016 (4%), multiplied by ten four years later (39%).
If the ratio of Democratic and Republican voters among mail-in voters were a little more balanced than in 2020 and 2022, Pennsylvania has a good chance of seeing what’s called the “red mirage.” This phenomenon occurs when the first half of the count puts Republicans in the lead, before the final results confirm a victory for the Democrats.
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