THE Vice President Kamala Harris has been 2.2 points ahead of former US President Donald Trump for weeks. in the general average of polls, which reflects the general sentiment before the elections in the United States. On the other hand, it is not enough for Democratic strategists to claim victory. You need an advantage of between 3 and 4% in the overall average, thanks to the Electoral College system, which divides each state into a certain number of electoral votes.. Can 2016 be repeated? Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in the US elections, despite having a two or three point lead in September polls. This time, Kamala Harris has less of an advantage than Clinton and fails to gain massive support from two key voter groups for the Democrats: working middle class and Hispanics.
Trump won 219 of the states that traditionally vote Republican in US elections. Harris has 215 Democrats. There are 104 electoral votes at stake: 94 from swing states (Swing States) and 10 from Minnesota, the state of Harris’ number 2, Tim Walz, which some pollsters consider doubtful. They need 270 to win the White House. Donald Trump can win a total of 281 electoral votes in these US elections. He is leading in the polls in the general average of undecided states. Specifically, in those states, he outperforms Harris in Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes), and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes). Meanwhile, Harris would remain with 257: Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) And Michigan (15 electoral votes).
In the Battlefield States (battlefield states), as undecided states are also called (Swing States), mentioned previously, Trump is leading in the poll average. Voters in these states, made up of the working middle class as well as Hispanics in Nevada and Arizona, have traditionally voted Democratic. But in this election, they have more faith in Trump to solve the issues they care about most.: inflation, economy, illegal immigration and border security.
Why can Trump win the election?
Trump has at least four ways to get to the White House:
- Trump wins the White House with Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16). Obtain 270 electoral votes if we add these states to the 219 electoral votes he already has.
- Trump wins the White House with the Sun Belt states (Nevada, 6 electoral votes; Arizona, 11 electoral votes; North Carolina and Georgia) and one Rust Belt state (Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes). Obtain 278 electoral votes.
- Trump repeats 2016. Wins with 306 electoral votes with Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, 15 electoral votes; Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
- Trump wins with the Rust Belt (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and Arizona. Obtain 274 electoral votes.
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a system exclusive to the United States, which is only applied in the United States during presidential elections. Instead of the president being elected by a simple majority of the popular voteis chosen by the proportion of votes of each state and the District of Columbia, the capital of Washington. The electoral college is calculated based on population. It is subject to the condition that, whatever its size, each State have at least three electoral votes. The winning candidate must obtain at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes.
All but two states, Nebraska and Maine, use a voting system in which the winner takes all. For example, in 2020, Biden won Georgia with 49.5% of the vote (to Trump’s 49.2%), giving Biden all 16 electoral votes. This means that a president can win without getting the popular vote, as happened to Trump in 2016. Hillary Clinton went on to lose the election, although she won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes. Also, in 2000, Republican George W. Bush defeated Al Gore, vice-president with Bill Clinton, thanks to the electoral college system. Instead, he lost the popular vote by about 545,000 votes.
In these elections, the big winners are the most populous undecided states. In this case, it’s Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes. The states with the most electoral votes were California, with 54, and Texas, with 40. But, These are two states that have already been decided because they traditionally vote first for the Democratic Party. And the second to the Republican Party. Therefore, candidates spend all their money on campaign rallies and advertisements in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
What happened in the 2020 US elections?
Joe Biden beat Donald Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College. He had a 4-point margin in the popular vote. Biden gains ground among suburban voters. Trump gained margin among Hispanic voters. Biden gained points with the male vote. Trump improved among women, narrowing the gender gap. Biden outperformed Clinton among non-college white voters. Biden has gained support from some religious groups.
What happened in the 2016 US elections?
In his own words, Hillary Clinton admitted she lost because of “machismo”since she is criticized for not having divorced Bill Clinton after the affair with Monica Lewinsky. According to him, it was also “difficult to succeed Barack Obama after eight years in the White House.” Clinton blamed Vladimir Putin, the media, the voters themselves for being uninformed and voting for the wrong candidate, her husband Bill Clinton, and the so-called hatred of women in the United States.
Instead, Hillary Clinton ran a successful campaign by the old standards of Democratic Party strategy.: trusting city voters to have enough margin to win counties in each state. However, didn’t count on Donald Trump’s success to mobilize the small-town votewho overwhelmingly supported the Republican. Trump focused on swing states to win the 2016 election. He knew that traditionally Republican states were going to vote for him and he considered it not worth spending money in states that had always voted Democratic. On the other hand, he relied on internal polls to break the Blue wall Democrat (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and chose to take away from the Democrats the core electorate: the working middle class. Everything worked for him. He also managed to make great progress with the Latino vote, which traditionally supports Democrats in elections..
