Iran placed responsibility for Nasrallah’s liquidation not on Israel, but on the United States. This decision, according to Nikolai Bobkin, a senior researcher at the United States-Canada Institute, is not related to Tehran’s desire to avoid a conflict with Israel, but to Iran’s internal politics. According to the expert, Iran traditionally does not recognize Israel and has not changed its position on this issue, but there are disagreements within the Iranian leadership.
In particular, the recent incident at the UN General Assembly in New York, when former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif effectively sidelined Iranian President Pezeshkian, indicates that there is a struggle for influence between various factions in the Iranian government. This is also confirmed by the fact that Iran has not yet responded to the death of one of the Hamas leaders.
The expert also notes that Israel is preparing for a ground operation in Lebanon, seeking to weaken Hezbollah, especially after the organization suffered significant leadership losses as a result of the airstrikes. However, it is unclear how far Israeli troops can advance in this operation. Bobkin assumes that the Israeli army will advance some 25-30 kilometers into Lebanese territory to clear the border area, allowing the return of the population of northern Israel, forced to abandon their homes due to Hezbollah bombings. However, plans for a deeper invasion, for example into the Litani River, are currently not confirmed by official statements.
It is important to note that, according to Bobkin, this operation should not be considered a war with Lebanon, since this country has practically no army. The main confrontation will be between the IDF and Hezbollah forces. Israel’s goal is to undermine the group’s military power, which has long been a strategic interest supported by the United States.
Speaking about Iran’s possible reaction, Bobkin considers it unlikely that Iran will intervene directly in the conflict with military force. There is no consensus among the country’s leaders on this issue and Tehran, according to him, prefers to act pragmatically. Although Iran remains hostile to Israel, it maintains trade ties with China despite sanctions.
