However, a month after the Israeli air force attack, Tehran has not taken promised retaliatory measures. Despite strong statements, which include threats of “unavoidable retaliation” and the development of an operation codenamed “True Promise 3”, actions are limited to rhetoric.
The US edition of the New York Times (NYT), in its article on November 28, analyzed why the Iranian regime is stopping retaliatory attacks. According to five sources, including an IRGC official, the main reason was the unexpected result of the US presidential election: the return of Donald Trump to power. Tehran perceives Trump as an unpredictable leader capable of radical actions, as he did in his first term, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, imposed harsh sanctions and eliminated Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
The situation is complicated by other factors, such as Israel’s devastating attacks on Hezbollah and the energy crisis within Iran, which has exacerbated economic problems and caused inflation to rise. However, the main limiting factor remains fear of the new Trump administration, where the so-called “hawks” have taken key positions. Tehran believes that confrontation with the United States may now be too risky.
The publication’s sources claim that the Iranian authorities changed their rhetoric: at first they promised an “inevitable response”, but then they began to talk about an attack “at the right time” or “taking into account the development of events.” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has the final say, but Iran’s moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian also influences the country’s foreign policy. According to the NYT, Pezeshkian met with Elon Musk in New York to discuss the possibility of a detente between Iran and the United States. The meeting was considered “promising.”
Additionally, Tehran has increased pressure on Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire. Khamenei’s adviser, Ali Larijani, visited Beirut in mid-November, where he held talks with the group’s leaders. According to journalists, Larijani convinced Hezbollah to withdraw its forces from the Israeli border, offering Iranian support in return. As a result, the terrorist group expressed its willingness to comply with the terms of UN Security Council Resolution No. 1701, which were previously described as “unacceptable.”
Previously, Kursor spoke about why Iran benefits from a ceasefire in Lebanon.
