After the storm, peace of exchange returned to the front. The escalation on Wednesday, which led the officer to 1245 dollars, stopped yesterday, a day after the second tender of the 4th Bopreal series, in which the Central Bank awarded only $ 26 million. This little enthusiasm in the market can be even good news for the government, as it will put a roof for shooting in dollars, which has grown 2.4%from Monday.
Yesterday, city analysts wondered if there were no dividends of companies to turn, or, conversely, if there was a refusal of the market at an implicit, exchange rate exceeding $ 1,400.
“Low demand may be associated with the fact that many companies have already allowed their external obligations and/or retained dividends, or that they do not confirm the implicit exchange rate of exit. In the secondary market, Bopreal closed 83.1 of the Australian dollars, which implies a type of change of $ 1447, ”the Delphos investment said.
“Whoever gets access to this tool in order to turn dividends or cancellation of debt, will confirm the“ CEPO ”cost with a fine of 17% compared to the official exchange rate,” the consultant added.
This higher cost of departure from shares was more susceptible to yesterday, when the official exchange rate was again valid to $ 1245, while the MEP fell, and the one who had a liquidation that closed at 1230 and 1233 US dollars, respectively. Thanks to CCL, 200 dollars are cheaper than the implicit exchange rate of the new Bopreal, the companies did not show enthusiasm about the tool offered by BCRA.
Juan Carlos Barboza, research manager Banco Mariva, notes that this difference implies “no less loss for the company that signs it.” “If they sell a bonus, they lose access to MLC, as it would be if they were CCL. On the other hand, they can assume that the administration raises more control for companies, and perhaps they decided to wait, ”he said.
According to the analyst, the low demand for the buzzer implies that the increase in the increase in the pressure of the dollar disappears, but this does not explain the escalation of recent days.
Dividends returned
Salvador Vitelly does not believe that the tender signal is that the implicit exchange rate is too high. “I am inclined to think that this is due to the problems focused on liquidity, and that this is not necessarily an attractive tool (after April there was already a lot),” said the head of Romano Group Research.
Meanwhile, from Max Capital they awarded a limited interest, which they called a “slightly positive signal”, which was already covered by the most urgent need to endure dividends abroad or cancel commercial debt.
Meanwhile, the wholesale dollar worked at the level of $ 1231, with a slight growth of 0.16%. “After a recent restructuring, the wholesale dollar took a respite since the operators foresaw an important liquidation from the strong level of statements about the end of June,” said Economist Gustavo Ber.
The third and last boorrate tender will be held on July 16, in which BCRA will be able to award up to 2164 million US dollars. If the metabolic calm remains, it is difficult to cover the entire amount that will be covered.
While the central is trying to clear the shares of dollars that are still caught in the trap of shares, the economic team controls the exchange temperature, which is a key fact to continue slowing down inflation, which, according to consultants, will be about 2%in June.
