Hours actually worked in the second quarter of 2024 are 10.6% higher than in the last quarter of 2019 – the reference date for pre-pandemic levels – due to the increase in both contributors and time worked. The data comes from the Quarterly Statistics of Hours Contributed (ETHC) of Social Security, which coincide with the measurements of the Quarterly Labor Cost Survey (ETCL) but not with those of the Active Population Survey (EPA) from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), which reports an increase of 4.6%. Who is right? We need to go back to the source of the surveys to find out where the discrepancy comes from.
The statistics of the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration are established from the hours contributed and the working relationships per contributor declared to Social Security (affiliation to the General Scheme) and those agreed by agreement. The calculation of actual hours worked is done by deducting from these agreed hours (including vacations and public holidays) the hours of workers in a situation of ERTE or temporary incapacity, compensation (birth and childcare, etc.). ) and other causes of absence.
Following this equation, the index stands at 110.6 points in the second quarter of 2024 compared to 100 in the last quarter of 2019, an increase in actual hours worked of 10.6% compared to the level before the pandemic. The ministry affirms that the increase in actual hours worked over the last four and a half years is associated with the 10.1% increase in the number of contributors in the sector General diet (+1.5 million people since) and the upward trend of 0.5% in effective hours for each contributor.
This development is consistent with that of the quarterly labor cost survey (ETCL) that the INE carries out among selected companies (agreed hours plus overtime minus hours not worked for reasons such as vacation or sick leave) , which shows an increase of 10.9%. in actual hours worked compared to 2019.
However, the results are much higher than those of the Household Labor Force Survey (EPA) and the National Accounts (both also from the INE), a synthesis of all previous sources. The department headed by Elma Saiz recognizes this gap and also emphasizes that It is produced from the third quarter of 2021that is, coinciding with the approval of the labor reform, but how can this divergence be explained?
It must be taken into account that the methodology is very different between the four statistics. Social Security extracts its data from affiliation to the General Scheme (where the majority of employees contribute but not all) while the EPA is a mega survey of households (60,000), the ECTL is a survey of selected companies and, in terms of employment, National Accounting is presented as a synthesis of all the previous ones, including Social Security. Each, with its own statistical treatment, even if The origin of the divergence appears to lie in the differences between the EPA and the ETHC..
The information collected by the EPA follows a very different path than that of Social Security. The mega household survey asks those who previously answered that they were employed, whether they worked during the reference week and what the usual and actual working hours (including overtime) are on those days -there, that is to say it shows the number of employees who did not work. work worked during the reference week in a differentiated manner for reasons but does not include weekly hours not worked (ERTE, sick leave, vacations, permits, etc.), which harms the comparison with the two other surveys and deformed the results.
Escriva’s “kitchen”
The ministry calculates employment based on the “bill” that each job represents for employers (just as the ETCL does). Actually, Membership is a record of employment relationships, not the number of individuals working. In any case, the information provided by the Ministry of Inclusion is not too complete to deepen the treatment it gives to the data published by the INE, in particular those of the Quarterly Survey on Labor Costs , when constructing its comparison.
If we stick to the affiliation data, we feel a direct impact of the labor reform, which has considerably reduced temporary work, and a more significant evolution – upwards – of hours worked, according to Security social, by reducing the volatility of affiliation. Likewise, since 2021, there has been a decrease in part-time employment.
The measurement of hours worked according to social security is a model invented at the end of 2023, when José Luis Escriva was still Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration and Data from the EPA and national accounts showed weakness in the recovery of working hours which hampered the productivity of the economy. Its design aims to emulate the formula used by the INE, but with different sources (the archives of contributions).
Everyone is aware that this gives rise to much more promising data, even if it remains valid as an alternative analysis of the evolution of productivity. The problem is that economists, research services and national and international organizations (including the Bank of Spain that Escriva now runs) refer to INE data. And these show improvement, but not as intense as those of Inclusion.
