Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States has boosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ambitions to radically reshape the Middle East. However, as recent events demonstrate, relying on support for the new Trump administration carries serious risks for Israel, which may find itself in a strategically vulnerable position.
Foreign Affairs writes about this.
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has made notable military gains. Important Hamas and Hezbollah forces were destroyed, their infrastructure was destroyed, and key leaders were killed, including Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar. However, the political strategy surrounding these actions raises questions.
Netanyahu and his government seek to use these victories to secure long-term control over Gaza, strengthen Israel’s position in the West Bank, and shift the balance of power in Lebanon. However, experts note that without a clear plan for a post-war settlement, these efforts could lead to even greater destabilization.
Hopes for Trump
The prime minister sees Trump as an ally willing to support Israel in any efforts, including increasing pressure on Iran and expanding the Abraham Accords. However, the experience of the previous Trump administration shows that its policies can be unpredictable. For example, Trump has already expressed displeasure over Israel’s prolonged military actions and has repeatedly called on Netanyahu to end the conflicts.
In addition, the new Trump administration will likely face pressure from the Arab and Muslim countries with which it will establish relations. This may limit the United States’ willingness to unconditionally support Israeli initiatives.
Internal and external calls
Inside Israel, Netanyahu faces growing public discontent. Prolonged fighting, the need to mobilize reservists and popular discontent with the actions of coalition partners such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are creating tension.
On the international stage, the situation also remains difficult. European countries have restricted arms exports to Israel, citing violations of international law, and the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant. This increases diplomatic pressure on Israel, limiting its army’s freedom of action.
Uncertainty looms
Experts say Israel risks deepening conflicts without a clear plan to end them. Gaza and Lebanon have been compared to a “Vietnamese swamp” where, despite military superiority, Israel faces constant attacks and enormous humanitarian consequences.
For Netanyahu, the key challenge will be balancing the coalition’s expectations, Israel’s strategic goals and Trump’s willingness to support its ambitions. If the prime minister fails to find this balance, Israel could find itself in an even more difficult situation, both domestically and internationally.
Previously, Kursor wrote that experts explained why the Trump administration is no longer promising a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
