Four weeks ago, the church seemed to have been told. Kamala Harris triumphed in August at the Democratic convention in Chicago, beating a diminished Joe Biden, and dominated Donald Trump in the only debate of the campaign, on September 10. His election on November 5 seemed certain, except that four weeks before the election nothing seems certain. Just asking the question confirms that Donald Trump did not lose.
The surveys added by the New York Times give a victory to Kamala Harris as long as she wins in Pennsylvania, which has 19 important voters. Donald Trump’s delay in this key state is only one point. METROme Harris has a lead of one to two points in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads by one or two points in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, other swing states. The fog is complete.
According to statistician Nate Silver, one of the few who warned about the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in 2016, Kamala Harris’ chances of victory are 54.7%, when she was still counting on a Trump victory in mid-September . but he considers this progress to be very weak. Bettors at online site Polymarket give Donald Trump a 52.7% chance of winning. In summary, the progress of Mme Harris remains insufficient to guarantee a victory.
small grains of sand
Beyond the polls, small grains of sand have accumulated in Kamala Harris’ campaign in recent weeks. First of all, Donald Trump, who had become inaudible during the summer, once again dominates the agenda. The Republican took command during Hurricane Helene on September 27, which, with more than 200 deaths, proved to be the deadliest since Katrina, which drowned New Orleans underwater in 2005. Absent from the field in the first few days, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris gave a feeling of indifference towards the victims of Appalachia. The Republican camp took advantage of this failure and spread the fear that Americans would not be able to count on the Democrats in case of misfortune.
This same resource was used by the Republicans when they spread the rumor that accused Haitians of eating the cats of the inhabitants of the small town of Springfield, in Ohio. The reproach is false, denied by the press, but Trump’s objective has been achieved: to put on the map a city of 50,000 inhabitants that has seen 20,000 Haitians arrive in a few years and sow panic in the rest of America, worried about suffering . the same destiny.
You have 57.25% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
