Moscow decided on Wednesday, September 25, to review its nuclear doctrine to adapt it to the new context of the war in Ukraine. This was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting of the Russian Security Council dedicated to this issue, whose report was made public. A new step when, until now, the head of the Kremlin had mainly increased declarative threats.
Until now, the Russian nuclear doctrine – whose last public document dates back to 2020 – only stipulated that Russia could use its own arsenal in the event of a nuclear attack or a conventional attack. “threatening the existence of the State”. This time, Putin proposed that a “Aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear State, but with the participation or support of a nuclear State, is considered aggression.” joint attack against the Russian Federation ». A clear reference to Ukraine and its ongoing offensive in the Kursk region, on Russian territory.
Future doctrine should also stipulate that Russia will now be able to use nuclear weapons. “whether you received reliable information about the start of a massive cross-border attack from the air using strategic and tactical aviation, cruise missiles, drones and hypersonic weapons”declared Putin. Mention directly related to the announcement, on Friday, September 26, by US President Joe Biden of the shipment to kyiv of floating bombs with a range of 20 to 130 kilometers. These joint engagement weapons (JOSW), adaptable to the F-16s that began to be delivered to Ukraine since the summer, could allow combat aircraft, in certain circumstances, to attack Russian forces in depth.
Finally, future doctrine could mention for the first time, in black and white, the fact that Belarus is now under the umbrella of Russian deterrence. “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State”Vladimir Putin specified. An announcement consistent with the alleged arrival, on Belarusian soil, since June 2023, of nuclear warheads. This is Moscow’s first deployment of nuclear weapons outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Broader conditions of use of atomic weapons.
“To be operational, this evolution of the doctrine must still be validated by a presidential decree. Furthermore, as has already been said, it does not formally constitute a lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, specifies Héloïse Fayet, specialist in deterrence issues at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). On the other hand, the conditions of employment are expanded, because until now only the threat of ballistic missiles was taken into account in the definition of these thresholds, not a possible large-scale air attack.duck.
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