why Scholz’s traffic light coalition was doomed to collapse

So after days of rumors about his possible downfall and three years in power, he collapsed the traffic light coalitionas we know it by the colors of the three parties that compose it (red, yellow and green). Probably no one expected that Europe’s largest economy would open a period of uncertainty at such an inopportune time, in the middle of a recession and just after we learned that the next occupant of the White House would, among other things, intend to impose customs duties on European products and end aid to Ukraine. However, what everyone seemed to predict was that the pact between social democrats (SPD), Green (Die Grünen) and liberals (FDP) would end up exploding sooner or later. And so it was.

“It was a very bad marriage this was endured out of historical responsibility, to face the protectionism that followed the pandemic or the Russian invasion,” he explains. Hector Sánchez Margalefresearcher at the Barcelona International Affairs Center (CIDOB) and expert in European policies. However, the analyst emphasizes, “the divorce was long overdue” due to constant internal conflicts.

In May, 62% of Germans estimated very dissatisfied to the work of the first tripartite since the post-war period, according to an IPSOS survey. In September, only 16% of Germans say they are satisfied with the performance of the federal government. In November, it was the partners who concluded that the alliance was not sustainable.

The beginning of the end? The beginning

At first, the coalition enjoyed success and popularity. It was born in September 2021, when the Social Democrats won the elections, but only two points ahead of the Christian Democrats CDU/CSU. By first time in 70 years The two parties which traditionally alternated power in Germany, the SPD and the CDU, did not arrive together with 50% of the votes. This opened a new political scenario. And far from repeating a grand coalition or past alliances, the Social Democrats, led by Scholz, managed to reach an agreement with the Liberals and Greens, who had performed very well that year. The promise with which this unprecedented tripartite took power was to “take charge of the future” and “betting on progress”.

“In German political tradition, minority governments are a rare bird; They are always the result of large majorities in Parliament, which partly explains why these parties reached an agreement at that time,” explains Alberto Bueno, professor of political science at the University of Granada and the University of Leipzig. But also, specifies the expert, this change has a lot to do with the end of the Merkel era. “New parties had to arrive, even if Scholz came from the previous executive and even if there were already differences between the three partners,” he says.

The distance between the formations has been obvious since the union, but if we had to mark the beginning of the end it would be Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. “The coalition didn’t even have time for a honeymoon,” explains Sánchez Margalef. “It was a shock structural at the level of foreign policy, but also of trade, energy and economic policy, which stressed the seams to the maximum of the tripartite”, recognizes Bueno.

Then, in a historic turning point, Germany decided to significantly increase its military spending and abandon Russian gas. Not until all three partners discuss it. On the one hand, the Greens, led by the party leader, Robert Habeckand the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbockthey wanted to stand their ground against Moscow and send weapons to Ukraine. On the other hand, the social democrats advocated being more cautious. And since Ostpolitics (the policy of rapprochement of the Federal Republic of Germany towards the Eastern bloc promoted by Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1970s), adopted a more Russophile position. For example, its support for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

This disagreement was the first of a long series. Having given up Russian energy, on which it was heavily dependent, Germany found itself faced with the Herculean task of finding new supplies to avert a crisis. energy security crisis. This places a party like the Greens, traditionally anti-nuclear but forced to react quickly in emergencies, between a rock and a hard place. Added to this are other problems, such as the growing disinterest of China, its main trading partner, in the products. Made in Germany or the crisis in the German industrial sector, particularly the powerful automobile sector. Thus, over the last two years, the country has gone from the status of locomotive of the European economy to almost become the caboose.

The economy, a zone of friction

It was precisely the disagreements over how to promote the German traffic light government that caused the complete collapse of the German government. the stagnant and weakened economy of the country. “This is the area where there are the most differences between the parties, and the perfect storm has been created so that everything ends up exploding,” Bueno tells EL ESPAÑOL.

However, the struggle in this area goes back a long way. Already in 2023, in the midst of a dispute over federal budgets, German justice dealt a hard blow to the government by ruling that could not reallocate 60 billion euros of debt unused during the pandemic to a climate fund. This left the tripartite with few options to promote energy independence projects. Especially because it was put a brake on the debt, the debt limit enshrined in the German Constitution and is currently in force.

“The war in Ukraine was a structural shock that stressed the seams to the maximum of the tripartite”

Alberto Bueno, professor at the University of Granada

The general budgets for 2025 had to arrive for everything to explode. And the recipe for the liberals (recocuts massive spending and tax cuts) clashes head-on with that of the Social Democrats and the Greens, ready to lift the debt brake and increase public spending.

These irreconcilable differences are what led the chancellor on Wednesday to announce the departure of his partner and to announce that HE would present a motion of confidence predictably lose it – since it does not have a parliamentary majority – and thus force the appeal of the early elections. This is the only way left, because neither Parliament nor the Chancellor can dissolve themselves.

Ihas the date chosen by the head of government is January 15which places the electoral meeting in March. Until then, without the liberals, the government is in the minority and must face the challenge of approving the 2025 budget in the Bundestag.

Personal matter… and electoral

The breakup announcement came during an appearance during which Scholz called out Lindner “selfish” and “squared”and the liberal criticized the head of government for having proposed “lazy” and “lacking ambition” measures. Various German media, such as the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitunginterpreted the harshness of these remarks as an argument which This goes beyond the ideological and borders on the personal. Personal but also electoral. Because behind the breakdown of German traffic lights 11 months before the end of the legislature there is also an electoral calculation.

“Perhaps Scholz thinks that the liberals will tolerate the fall of the government and that he will regain political initiativeif he ever had one,” says Sánchez Margalef. A risky move considering that polls predict a huge setback for the social democrats. “He is seeking a coup d’état,” adds the CIDOB expert.

For their part, the liberals’ defiance could be read as an act of survival. In the regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia in September, the Liberals (and the Greens) won. terrible results. They only gained representation in one of the two parliaments. This fear of finding himself without representation in the Bundestag led Lindner to retreat into your budget linethinking that perhaps this is how he can regain the support of the liberal electorate. “Maybe you’re just trying to anticipate so you don’t keep losing,” says Alberto Bueno, from the University of Granada.

If anyone emerges victorious from this political chaos, it is the opposition. According to a survey published by the demographic institute IPSOS on November 7, if the elections took place this Sunday, the coalition Christian Democrat CDU/CSUdirected by Friederich Merz, would win with 32% of the vote. In second place would be, with 18%, the far-right AfD, which won the regional elections.

Third place would be occupied by the social democrats SPD with 15%, followed by the Greens with 11% and the BSW – the new anti-immigration left party – with 8%. At the bottom would be the liberals of the FDP, who would reach 5%, the minimum to enter the Bundestag. A point of view very worrying for which it has been the main pivotal party of a large part of the democratic governments in Germany.

However, although it is still early to I know what will happen from Januaryit is difficult not to think of the crisis of 1982, when the liberals – also for economic policy reasons – They left the coalition with the Social Democrats of Helmut Schmidt and ended up appointing the Christian Democrat Helmut Kohl chancellor.