For some, it is the “rust belt,” due to its declining industrial past; for others the “blue wall”, because of its tradition of Democratic voting until the victory of Donald Trump in 2016; and for all “the key to the White House”, because of its weight in the distribution of the Electoral College which decides the President of the United States. There are countless nicknames for the duo that makes up Michigan and Wisconsin, the two states that decided the winner of the 2020 and 2016 elections by the minimum and which, next night, November 5, will have power, again once, to decide on the presidency of the leading world power.
Of the 93 electoral delegates distributed in the seven pivotal states of these elections (Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia), Kamala Haris He would only need to win Wisconsin and Michigan to be 19th out of the 270 that would guarantee his victory. Trump, for his part, would need 26 additional delegates if he managed to confirm his victory in the two territories, which distribute 10 (in the case of Wisconsin) and 15 (in the case of Michigan), a very valuable asset that no candidate can miss. .
Slight advantage for Kamala
The average of polls two days before polls closed put Harris with a one-point advantage (48.2%-47.3%) in Wisconsin and 0.8 tenths in Michigan (47.9%-47 .1%), within the margin of error. But over the past 48 hours, a series of polls have been released that significantly improve expectations for the Democratic candidate in both territories.
The latest study from Marist Poll, one of the oldest and most respected pollsters in the United States, places Harris with a 51 to 48% lead over Trump in Michigan and 50% to 48% in Wisconsinparticularly carried by independent voters (those who are not registered in any political party).
Also the Siena College survey for the New York Times gives Harris a 2-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, even though they are tied in Michigan, where precisely Biden he won by a larger margin in 2020. That is, there is a slight advantage but it is not clear.
Epicenter of the campaign
The campaigns of the two candidates deployed numerous resources in these territories because their results were very close in the last elections: in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes and Michigan by a little more than 11,000 votes. . It was a very slim advantage, but enough to bring down what many analysts had previously called the “Blue Wall”, a series of industrialized states that had until then voted for the Democratic candidate in almost all elections. the presidential elections, giving him significant support. Barack Obama during his two mandates.
Thus, Trump’s victory surprised the country but especially the territories. It was more expected to see him win in southern territories, such as North Carolina or Georgia, than in Michigan or Wisconsin, seats of the labor movement several decades ago and close to metropolises like Chicago, Detroit and Milwaukee.
Then, analysts and media began to try to understand who were these voters who had turned their backs on Democratic power, embodied by Hillary Clintonand they were going against a Republican heckler like Donald Trump. They found a profile that has accompanied the demographics of “Trumpism” to this day: the white, middle-class voter without a college education, who does not feel protected by the industrial decline of this region of the country and aspires to to more buoyant past times. . For them, the original slogan “Make America Great Again” fit like a glove.
It is for this reason that the Republican Party did not hesitate to organize its congress in Milwaukee to once again appeal to this profile of voters perhaps disenchanted after the chaotic end of Trump’s mandate in 2020 and its authoritarian branches.
“The only way to sell to the United States is to produce in the United States, it’s as simple as that,” Trump told everyone in his speech, defending his protectionist economic proposals.
Actually, Much of the campaign and strategy of both parties has been concentrated in this region of the country.. Even during the election of the two vice-presidential candidates.
Origin of “vice” candidates
J.D. Vancethe Republican, is a senator from Ohio – the border state of Michigan – and before entering politics, he was known as “the voice of the rust belt” for his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy”, in which he explained perfectly the reasons why a This traditionally liberal region had given in to conservatism.
The Democrats, for their part, chose Harris as number two. Tim Walzgovernor of Minnesota – border state of Michigan – and representative of the Democratic resistance to “Trumpism” in the north of the country.
Democrats also located the convention that elevated Harris as the new candidate after Biden withdrew there: for four days, the United Center of ChicagoTHE capital economic of the American Midwest, received the Obamas, the Clinton and a whole list of guests and celebrities like Oprah Winfrey.
Since then, the candidate has visited the region around thirty times, several this week.
During the last two days of the campaign, the Democrats deployed all their artillery to mobilize as many voters as possible in the territory: Sunday only, Barack Obama joined Harris at a Sunday rally held in Milwaukeethe largest city in Wisconsin, after the candidate visited Detroit, the largest metropolis in Michigan.
“We need everyone in Wisconsin to vote, you’re going to make a difference in this election… you’re going to make a difference… you,” Harris emphasized this weekend at an event. Fox Valleyone of the Wisconsin suburbs that can guarantee victory in swing states.
In 2020, Biden and Harris won Wisconsin by less than 20,000 votes and secured Michigan by more than 100,000 votes.. Improving or surpassing these margins is essential for the candidacy of the woman who aspires to become the country’s first president to succeed. Or for Trump to come back.
