The approval of the Iranian parliament this Sunday about the closure of the Ormus Strait to the Marine Movement a few hours after entering the United States into the war – and the simultaneous attack on the nuclear facilities of Fordo, Nathan and Isfhan – awaits the solution with which the Islamic Republic will cause all possible damage, and throughout the economy, and throughout the entire time, and military personnel, and throughout the world, and throughout the world, and throughout the world, and throughout the world, and throughout the world. military personnel, both during their military program, and the military, and the military, the military throughout the whole time, and the military, and the military throughout the whole time. The ability of the military
Also yesterday, the commander of the bodies of the revolutionary guard, Sardar Esmail Kovari, confirmed that the military elite is working on this: “We are considering this, and we will make the best solution with determination.” “Our hands are open to punishment by the enemy, and the military answer is only part of our global answer,” concluded Deputy Iranian. But the final decision, like all the great strategic decisions of the regime born in 1979, consists in the hands of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Jamimen, who is silent from the US explosions this weekend in his alleged shelter in Tehran.
However, regardless of what the chief of the Iranian state state and the Armed Forces of the regime can decide, experts coincide with difficulties that the effective closure of an important commercial route, which is the Strait of Ormuz, taking into account the important military presence of the United States in this area. The decision in this sense, from the side of Iranian theocracy and American forces in the Persian Gulf, can immediately attack, for example, Trump’s attack on Iranian nuclear objects this Friday. What seems more likely that the regime begins to perform sabotage actions against Western interests from now on. Not only directly carried out by Iranian forces, but also through regional proxies, such as Yemen Hutis, who have already given evidence that they are ready to sabotage sea trade since the end of 2023.
Why does Ormuz matter
One of the strategic and critical places of world trade, the Strait of Ormuz, which separates Iran from the Sultanate of Oman, is the fundamental point of oil from the countries of the Indian Ocean and the Arab Sea. According to estimates, about 25-30% of the global oil trade passes through Ormuz and the fifth of all global movements in the raw oil industry, as well as more than 20% of liquefied natural gas.
Its possible closure will have natural consequences – and unpredictable – in the prices of hydrocarbons – some prices that are loaded from last Friday 13, and the beginning of the Israeli offensive in Iran – and the planetary economy. Also mainly for the European Union, strongly dependent on the hydrocarbons of the Persian Gulf. The consequences for Europe and Spain regarding traffic interruption in Ormuz will be realized with increasing prices for rising prices and increasing transport costs: the perfect combination, so that the industry and continental agriculture were beaten. All this, except for the negative consequences that he will have on the continent bags. In addition to hydrocarbons, the Strait of Ormuz is a fundamental way for world transport of goods. Its closure will delay the arrival of important goods for European and world industries and consumers.
The closing of the strait will also have negative consequences for the Islamic Republic itself, one of the ten greatest oil producers in the world, although its authorities do not seem to be very concerned about the national industry and the economy, since they are interested in shaking the interests of Western interests, thinking that this can be stopped by Tel Aviv and Washington.
To increase oil production by 75% to 3.4 million barrels per day – and tripartite exports – since 2020, Western sanctions and the lack of investments and technical and professional means have been painkillers in recent months. Oil refineries and other industry facilities were old. Great hydrocarbon reserves in the hands of the regime did not prevent their government, unable to produce enough fuel to guarantee electricity to their citizens in recent months.
Sanctions also do not adhere to a smaller number of customers for Iranian gas and crude oil, and almost all of the oil of the Islamic Republic is acquired by China. If the oil industry has already given signs of a crisis, the seriousness of the punishment suffered by Israeli and American explosions predict much more problems, even if the rise at the moment. In a recent television interview, Vice President JD Vance said that the closure of Oormuz will be “suicide” for the economic interests of the Iranian dictatorship.