The forecasts which predicted a sharp drop in the price of oil for the next campaign (we were talking at the source of a drop to 4.5 or 5 euros per liter), they seem to be dissipating; or, at least, they lose strength. This is despite the fact that production estimates indicate that it can reach 271,000 tonnes in the province, almost 79% more.
This is what the voices of the Cordoba olive sector predict, who prefer to remain cautious and are inclined to consider that prices “will maintain at an acceptable level”, as stated by the general secretary of Asaja, Rafael Navaswhich describes it as “normal and predictable” that an increase in production is expected, “because the previous campaign was very bad” [unas 800.000 toneladas].
However, Navas warns that, “although he came out of a the drought is so bad” and that “the spring rains helped”, the water problem still persists. “The rainfall has not been sufficient and the trees are still subject to water stress“, because, even if irrigated olive trees last longer, the dry ones, which are the majority, “live very poorly without water since spring”.
In this sense, even if the harvest exceeds that of last year, “it will not be a big harvest either. Yes, it’s true that it will allow supply the market enough, but I don’t think it affects the price too much; will undergo some adjustments and will be acceptable to the farmerbut not what was initially estimated. Furthermore, the stock link is low, which worries the olive sector (below 200,000 tonnes).
In the same line it is pronounced Rafael Sanchez de Puertageneral director of Dcoop and president of Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias de Córdoba: “The production forecasts for the 2024/25 campaign of the Council are very similar to those we made a few days ago. Another thing is that it is spoiled by the climatic situation. For this not to happen, the year must be “normal”, and we started with a very dry autumnand the olive tree suffers greatly.
Regarding prices, Sánchez de Puerta emphasizes that “it is difficult to anticipate how they will behave, because they depend on several factors: first, the weather; and also how the market is recovering. In this sense, the consumption of olive oil in 2023 has suffered a sharp decrease compared to the values of previous yearsalthough in the case of extra virgin oil it still remains above the records of ten years ago.
As for the exportsin the last campaign, they still decreased compared to the previous campaign, but their value increased by more than 19% (data from the entire community).
Extra virgin, at 7.2 euros per liter originally
In any case, “with a capacity so tight “We do not expect a very significant drop in prices,” indicates the president of the Agro-Food Cooperatives of Cordoba.
According to the last agricultural situation reportthe original cost of a kilo of extra virgin olive oil this week was at 7.2 euros per liter. The virgin price is 6.9 euros and the organic extra virgin is 7.4 euros.
The dominant phenological stage in the province of Córdoba is “H” (stone hardening) and, more advanced, “I1” (veraison, yellowing). The greening of the hojiblanca variety continues in the south and central-west zone of the province, “with a gradual increase in contributions“, because the supply is not very large since suitable olives can only be harvested on irrigated land or very cool dry land because with the current weather (heat without precipitation) the olive accelerates its cycle and changes color more quickly”, collects the Office report.
In the province of Córdoba there are 376,400 hectares of olive groveaccording to Sigpac data, with an increasing trend in recent years. There are four designations of originBaena, Priego de Córdoba, Montoro-Adamuz and Lucena. The value of the final production of the olive grove represented 48% of the total of the agricultural sector last year.
