Important holidays are expected in Ukraine in the coming days: on August 23, the country will celebrate the National Flag Day, and on August 24, the 33rd anniversary of independence.
In times of war, these dates take on special significance, and analysts predict possible risks associated with Russia’s actions on these days. According to the analytical material of the OKO Analytical Telegram channel, there is a possibility of massive attacks, but experts assess this risk as moderately low.
Analysts stress that Russia’s missile arsenals cannot be exhausted soon and that one should not expect the situation to improve immediately. At the same time, they avoid panic by stating that a large-scale destruction of Ukraine is unlikely. However, despite these forecasts, OKO Analytical strongly recommends not ignoring warnings of airstrikes and taking cover if necessary, especially after recent events in the Kursk region, which could provoke a response from Russia.
According to experts, the risk of mass attacks similar to those in autumn 2022 occurring in the coming days is not that great. Although such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out, the likelihood of a large-scale bombing on August 23 or 24 seems unlikely to them. Analysts note that no “apocalypse” is likely to occur in these days.
One factor that reduces the likelihood of a massive attack on August 23 is the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to kyiv. According to OKO Analytical, the likelihood of Russia deciding to launch a major attack during the stay of a high-ranking guest from a friendly country is extremely small. India is an important partner of Russia and Moscow depends on energy supplies to this country. An attack on Ukraine during Modi’s visit could deal a blow to relations with India, making such a move unlikely.
The situation becomes even more complicated on August 24, when Ukraine celebrates Independence Day. Given the symbolism of this date, a massive strike against important targets could be a significant step for Russia. However, analysts recall that in previous years, neither in 2022 nor in 2023, Russia did not carry out large-scale attacks on this day.
Could Russia change its strategy in 2024? Quite a bit, but it may continue to ignore symbolic dates.
OKO Analytical also notes that Russia is often not bound by specific dates for carrying out major strikes. Examples of past attacks, such as those on October 10 and November 15, 2022, as well as December 29, 2023, confirm that Moscow can choose any random day to launch a massive missile strike. In this context, military actions are primarily subject to the logic of war and not to calendar dates.
Analysts summarise their forecasts by once again stressing the importance of being very alert to alarms, regardless of holidays or working days.
The likelihood of major attacks on August 23 and 24 does not appear high based on their analysis, but such attacks could occur at any time, regardless of the significance of the date.
It should be noted that after the start of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, the media considered Putin’s possible responses.
Earlier, Kursor wrote that Russia launched Operation Vengeance in the Kursk region.
Putin recently promised a tough response to Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region.
