Following the events in Aleppo, where Syrian rebels have achieved successes, the prospects for Russian involvement in the Syrian conflict are increasingly uncertain.
Military policy expert Alexander Musienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, in an interview with the Telegraph channel on YouTube, noted that Moscow will likely reduce its support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This is due to the fact that Damascus did not provide real assistance to Russia in the war against Ukraine.
The expert recalled that back in 2022, when Russia faced its first serious losses in Ukraine, the Kremlin began to actively attract mercenaries from other countries, including Syria, Lebanon and Libya. Among the forces involved were Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, Syrian militias and even members of the Afghan army who fled to Iran after the arrival of the Taliban. Russia planned to mobilize about 16,000 people, but in reality no more than 1,200 arrived. Some of these mercenaries took part in the battles near Mariupol, while others attempted to enter Europe through the Belarusian-Polish border, posing as refugees.
Now, according to Musienko, Russia has concentrated all its forces on the war in Ukraine, including aviation and resources. This has created favorable conditions for Assad’s opponents, who are actively taking advantage of Moscow’s weakening positions in Syria. Furthermore, Putin, by focusing on Ukraine, ignores both Russia’s internal problems and its declining influence in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries. For example, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly criticizes the CSTO for not supporting Yerevan in the conflict with Azerbaijan.
The expert stressed that Russia cannot simultaneously carry out full military operations on two fronts: Ukraine and Syria. At the same time, you can try to transfer resources from other regions, such as Mali or other African countries. However, the Kremlin is unlikely to withdraw its forces deployed in Ukraine, since that is where the main efforts are concentrated.
According to Musienko, Russia’s final withdrawal from the war in Syria will be a catastrophic blow for Russia. This will seem much worse than the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Putin then criticized Biden for his “defeat”, but now he himself may be mocked by the world community.
Previously, Cursor wrote that rebels in Syria eliminated military intelligence chief Assad.
Rebels in Syria have eliminated one of the key figures of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
