Outside the UK, the issue is far from resolved. On Monday, September 30, the British government prepares to close its last coal-fired power station; no other G7 country can say the same. But, around the world, despite its damage to the climate, use of the most damaging fossil fuel (ahead of oil and gas) is still in full swing. Particularly in so-called “developing” countries.
Coal consumption is at a record level, with a 2024 fiscal year of the same caliber as the previous one: around 8.7 billion tons, according to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the entire world. Whether it is a “total increase of 10%” compared to the 2014 figures, which were less than 8,000 million tons, recalls Carlos Fernández Álvarez, IEA analyst.
Most of this energy powers power plants. The so-called “thermal” coal remains the main source of primary energy to produce electricity. However, their relative share is declining (35% in 2024, down from 41% in 2014), as renewable energies, such as solar and wind, begin to gain ground. In absolute value, “it will remain at similar levels for another two or three years, before declining”estimates, not without optimism, Jenny Yang, an analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, a British consulting firm.
To a lesser extent, there is also demand for so-called “metallurgical” coal. It is then about satisfying the needs of certain industrial processes, particularly in the steel sector, for the production of steel.
More startups than closures
In all areas combined, the two most populous countries in the world are also the two countries that produce the most and consume the most coal. The thing may seem paradoxical: China, like India, still relies heavily on this fuel… while installing photovoltaic panels and wind turbine masts.
The Chinese economy alone accounts for more than half of global demand (around 56% in 2023, according to IEA figures). This is still much more than India (15%), the United States (4%) and some countries in the European Union (also 4%), starting with Poland and Germany.
To meet demand, supply also continues to develop. Over the course of 2023, even three times more coal-fired electricity production capacities were commissioned than were shut down. This represents 69.5 gigawatts (GW) more, compared to 21.1 less, according to the count of the Global Energy Monitor, a US organization. Knowing that the total in operation, worldwide, is already around 2,130 GW.
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