The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky An official visit to the United States begins this Tuesday during which he will attend the meeting of the United Nations General Assembly and I will speak with the president Joe BidenThe trip comes at a key moment in the context of the war between Ukraine and Russia, with several aspects on the table that the two leaders will have to discuss: first, the refusal of the United States (endorsed this Monday by the United Kingdom) to allow its weapons to be used on Russian soil, on the understanding that this This would be taken from Moscow as a declaration of war.
In addition, Zelensky comes with what he calls a “Victory Plan“to distinguish it from”peace plans” that several countries have recently presented, highlighting the one approved by China And Braziland which essentially reproduce the Kremlin’s theses: any ceasefire agreement must respond to the current situation on the front. What does this mean? That Ukraine must accept Russian sovereignty over the territories occupied since 2014, including Crimea, almost all of Lugansk, a good part of Donetsk and the south of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Of course, Ukraine categorically refuses to such an agreement, which looks more like a capitulation than anything else. Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last week that the best way to end a war is to lose it and that A Russian victory would pose a serious risk to the AllianceZelensky’s goal is that Biden understands this riskvalue it and give it priority over the advice of Jake Sullivan, the national Secretary of Defense, who always seeks to avoid any provocation against Russia for fear of a nuclear war.
Like NATO, but not in NATO
Zelensky also knows that besides Putin and Sullivan, he has another rival: the time. There is just over a month left before the US elections and the choice of vice president. Kamala Harris fails to distance himself from Donald Trump. At present, the situation is one of total equality between the seven key states that will decide the next president. Taking into account this asset has already shown several times his admiration for Vladimir Putin – during the debate with Harris, he did not want to comment on a possible victory of Ukraine in the war – and that his vice-president Vance is even more radical in his pro-Russian positions, Kyiv needs a commitment from Biden as soon as possible.
Zelensky shakes hands with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro during his visit to the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant.
Reuters
This is precisely what the four fundamental points of Zelensky’s victory plan are about, which the Ukrainian president himself very vaguely mentioned last weekend in a television interview. In fact, the main thing is summed up in the first of these points: Security guarantee for Ukraine from the West. A guarantee that would involve reaching a mutual defense agreement similar to the one that NATO members have among themselves… but without nominally requiring membership in the Alliance, something Moscow has already said it will never accept.
From this guarantee, which Zelensky intends to implement as soon as possible so that asset can’t keep his promiseend the war in two days“, the other three points of the plan emanate: support for the Kursk operation to force Russia to divide its troops on two different fronts, delivery of a series of advanced weapons that Zelensky did not want to specify and an economic agreement with the Western community that scares away the specter of post-war poverty and the possibility of a new Russian intervention.
The meeting with Trump and the new peace conference
Zelensky, who will meet with Trump throughout his trip, and who has always taken care to speak ill of the former president – although we should not forget that the first impeachment attempt that the republican suffered had Zelensky himself as the protagonistwhen Trump tried to pressure him to talk about possible dirty laundry about Hunter Biden, Joe’s son – wants nothing to do with a repeat of the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 that led to the loss of Crimea, the prolongation of the Donbass war and the systematic non-compliance with all guarantees, culminating in the attempted invasion in February 2022.
In return, he proposed a multilateral conference in November, which would continue the work carried out in June in the Swiss town of Bürgenstock, and to which Russia would be invited. The Kremlin had already made it clear at the time that it was not interested in attending this conference. Although the messages are always confused, this is not observed in Russia no clear desire for negotiationrather than putting the “reality of the territory” on the table, this is why the last two months have seen more Russian advances than in the previous twelve months.
Zelensky during a visit to a factory in the state of Pennsylvania.
Efe
In fact, this Monday it was confirmed the fall of the city of Ukrainsk and the penetration of about two kilometers south of Selidove, a town south of Pokrovsk that is essential for a possible attack on Ukraine’s second largest communications center in Donetsk after the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk conglomerate. If this penetration is due to a massive withdrawal of Ukrainian troops, it could become really problematic. If it were simply the result of several days of fighting, things would change, but Oleksandr Syrskyi’s army is finding it increasingly difficult to defend both the Selidove-Pokrovsk axis and the Vuhledar-Velyka Novosilka line.
When talking about goals, it is difficult to quantify them in days, months or years, but it seems clear that Russia Also wants to go to the inauguration of the new US president with most pieces on the boardIts success or failure will depend on the success of the Kursk counter-offensive (which has not been heard of since) and the firmness of the Ukrainian allies. A firmness that will be put into play in the coming days.
