Experts believe peace talks between Ukraine and Russia could take place next year, but could be fragile if US President-elect Donald Trump does not provide Ukraine with the necessary security guarantees.
Business Insider reports this.
RAND Corporation political analyst Paul Cormari, in a comment for this publication, noted that any agreement should include measures aimed at strengthening Ukraine and maintaining its position to effectively deter Russia from further aggressive steps. He recalled that Russia already has experience in territorial expansion, starting with the annexation of Crimea and part of Donbass in 2014 and ending with the seizure of around 20% of Ukrainian territory during a large-scale war.
The article also stated that while the details of a potential peace deal remain unclear, it would likely not include support for Ukraine’s entry into NATO. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has said that any peace deal must include Ukraine’s neutrality, a demand that Trump will likely accept based on comments from the president-elect’s adviser, JD Vance.
Some experts believe that such a plan may not solve the problem underlying the Russian invasion. – Expansion of NATO towards the east. Critics argue that such a deal could only embolden Putin and fuel the Russian president’s imperial ambitions. Ukrainian analysts also remember that Ukraine was neutral until 2014, which gave Putin the green light for aggression.
Regarding Ukraine’s security, Cormari said that even if the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO is dropped, other types of security agreements can be concluded. For example, Ukraine’s European allies could take on the role of defenders of the country, sending their troops to deter Russian attacks. It is also possible to increase Ukraine’s defense capabilities through the US military financing program.
At the same time, experts remind that in recent months Russia has seen no reason to negotiate with Ukraine, despite significant losses, while continuing to achieve its goals on the front. Missile attacks between Ukraine and Russia, including on the city of Dnepr, may have a political purpose and be part of Putin’s strategy in upcoming negotiations.
Recall that Cursor wrote that American President Joe Biden planned to publicly invite Ukraine to NATO. But then I changed my mind about doing it.
