The Consumer Price Index (CPI) destroys downward forecasts for September. According to preliminary data published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the index advanced 1.5% year-on-year in the ninth month of the year, its lowest level since March 2021 and in below the 1.9% at which it was announced. market consensus. Underlying inflation, for its part, also continues on the path of moderation and stands at 2.4%, its lowest level since January 2022.
The final data will be known on October 15, when we will know in detail the behavior of the components of the basket. At the moment, statistics indicate that the moderation is mainly due to cheaper gasoline and, to a lesser extent, that of food and electricity, compared to the increase they experienced in September 2023. The leisure and culture group also contributed with a greater contribution lower prices compared to the previous year.
If confirmed, the CPI will have risen eight tenths less than in August, when it closed at 2.3%, and underlying inflation (which does not include energy products or products fresh food to escape its volatility) increased by three tenths less than the previous month. .
In monthly terms (September vs. August), the CPI decreased by 0.6% from the previous month compared to the stagnation recorded in August and the monthly increase of 0.2% in September 2023. The sub -current also recorded negative intermonthly values (-0.4%).
In the usual assessment of inflation data, the Ministry of Economy highlights that “the continued reduction in inflation continues to demonstrate the effectiveness of economic policy measures and the capacity of the Spanish economy to make compatible the greatest economic growth among the country’s major countries. the euro zone, four times higher than the euro zone average, with moderate prices.
Even though the CPI moderated more than analysts expected, a rebound in inflation is expected by the end of the year. It should be remembered that from October, the reduction in VAT on food products will enter a new phase which will make certain products more expensive.
Concretely, essential foods benefiting from a super reduced VAT – which includes oil since July – will go from 0% currently to 2%, and those benefiting from a reduced rate will go from 5% to 7.5%. This will be the first step towards a return to normal rates, respectively 4% and 10%, which will take place in January 2025.
