Austria is holding parliamentary elections this Sunday with which the institutions of the European Union are once again holding their breath. The far-right FPÖ party is leading the polls and could win the legislative elections in the Alpine republic for the first time since 1945, after the end of the Second World War.
This would be a new political scenario in a country where coalitions with the far right, both on the side of the conservatives of the ÖVP and the social democrats of the SPÖ, have ceased to be taboo for decades. However, the FPÖ has until now always played the role of junior partner. With a possible victory for the far right this Sunday, that could change. The leader of the FPÖ, Hebert Kickl, does not hide his desire to become Austrian Federal Chancellor with an anti-immigration speech, contrary to the rights of sexual minorities, a climate change denier and which copies the dialectic trumpeter: “Austria first!”
Polls indicate that a government led by Kickl is possible: the FPÖ aims to obtain 27% of the vote, several points ahead of the conservative ÖVP, while the social democrats of the SPD could obtain 20%, the worst historical result in a country. general elections. Meanwhile, the ecologists of the Greens, current government partners of the Conservatives, would end up with around 9%, the same percentage as the liberals of NEOS.
The current Austrian chancellor, the conservative Karl Nehammer, does not rule out a possible government coalition with the FPÖ, but believes that its leader is not suited to it. The question that remains open is how the Austrian conservative party would react to a possible clear victory for the far right. Nehammer could be isolated with his opposition to Kickl’s nomination as Austrian chancellor, a scenario that would represent a before and after in Austrian and European politics. Kickl does not hide its proximity to the model of “illiberal democracy” established by Víktor Orbán in neighboring Hungary.
“Remigration”
“Remigration» is a buzzword in ultranationalist and xenophobic circles in German-speaking countries. Austrian far-right ideologue and leader of the Identitarian Movement, Martín Sellner, has put the word at the center of the political agenda of parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the FPÖ. With this text, the German and Austrian far-right parties openly defend the mass expulsion of asylum seekers, refugees, foreigners and also, in part, German and Austrian citizens of migratory origin.
The word “remigration» became particularly popular in Germany last February: the investigative journalism network Correctiv then highlighted a meeting organized by businessmen, members of the AfD and activists from various ultra-parliamentary organizations, like the Identity Movement, in the German city of Potsdam. During the meeting attended by Martin Sellner, there was open talk of a “remigration” project for millions of people, according to information from Correctiv.
Herbert Kickl has made the word “remigration” one of the axes of his campaign: “I don’t know what is wrong with this word,” declared the leader of the FPÖ during the last vote organized this Friday in Vienna. His party openly advocates the expulsion of large numbers of foreigners from the country as well as a systematic rejection of asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Syria and Somalia. The FPÖ electoral program also talks about creating a “Fortress Europe”, another expression used by the Identitarian Movement.
The brake on military support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion, the proximity of Russian positions on international politics, the opposition to the defense of sexual minorities – which Kickl considers a “sign of decadence” – and the use of skeptical expressions towards Ukraine. Climate crises such as “climate communism” were other important focuses of the FPÖ campaign.
Possible coalitions
The populist tone may help Kickl in his campaign, but it could be difficult for him to find government partners if his party ultimately becomes the leading force. All parties likely to be present in parliament – the ÖVP, the SPÖ, the Greens and the liberal NEOS – oppose the nomination of Kickl as chancellor. The so-called “sanitary cordon” therefore seems to have been rehabilitated in Austria.
The FPÖ leader, however, affirms that his objective is to lead the next government with the support of the conservatives. From a programmatic point of view, conservatives and ultras share many points, so the main obstacle to repeating a common coalition in decades past seems to be that Herbert Kickl is the one leading it this time.
With current polls, an alternative government to a far-right chancellor could be a grand coalition made up of conservatives and social democrats, or a tripartite made up of the ÖVP, SPÖ and the NEOS liberals. A repeat of the current conservative and green government seems unlikely, both because of the parliamentary arithmetic indicated by the polls and because of the distance between the two parties generated by the wear and tear of having governed a country together economically stagnant over the past five years.
