He euribor at one year, the indicator most used in Spain to calculate variable mortgage loans, once again closed the month of November down, with an average rate of 2.506%, its lowest level since September 2022. In its eighth consecutive month of decline, the indicator decreased by 1,516 percentage points compared to November 2023, when it reached an average rate of 4,022%, which represents the largest interannual decline in the last 15 years, since December 2009.
He euribor It began its downward trend in April this year, when it closed at 3.703%. Then it continued to decline in May (3,680%), in June (3,650%), in July (3,526%); in August (3,166%), September (2,936%) and October (2,691%). The mortgage director of the comparator and mortgage advisor iAhorro, Simone Colombelli, considers that after the new drop in euriborit seems that the indicator “is not going to slow down”, since, as you remember, during this month it reached a daily rate of about 2.3%. “The indicator recorded daily data around 2.3% and we expect it could close the year around this figure, around 2.3 or 2.35%,” he says.
Looking towards 2025, he explains that the evolution of euribor This will depend, to a large extent, on the decisions taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates; and, if the agency maintains the cuts in December and during the first quarter of 2025, “it is possible that reach values even lower than 2% before the middle of the year, before June 2025,” he predicts.
The spokesperson for Kelisto.es, Estefanía González, emphasizes that although the euribor continued its downward trend in November, the pace was lower than last month, suggesting that the indicator is already taking for granted the predictable rate cut that the ECB will make at its next meeting on December 12.
“The great unknown, as usual, It has to do with the magnitude of the rate cut (0.25 or 0.50 points), a variable which, without a doubt, will mark the path of euribor in the last weeks of the year”, he adds. González recalls that the ECB’s decision, as always, will be closely linked to inflation in the euro zone, its growth and other internal factors , like the next elections in Germany; but he warns We must not forget “that what happens on the other side of the Atlantic will also be decisive, particularly after the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States” .
In this sense, let us remember that his promise to impose 10% customs duties on imports from the European Union, added to the possible moderation in the path of lowering rates initiated by the Federal Reserve (Fed), “these will be factors that the European institution will take into account”. In this context, Kelisto believes that a 0.25 point rate cut by the ECB in December is increasingly feasible and, if so, he expects the euribor close 2024 below 2.5%. In the event that the monetary authority decides to reduce rates more intensely, it does not exclude that the euribor Dig well below that number.
