The chain cnn published this Friday exclusively a document which would expose the Keith Kellogg’s key linesTrump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine and responsible for mediation between the two countries, a stable peace in Eastern Europe. Although the retired general has repeatedly shown support for Ukraine and the need for Russia to lose the war, even criticizing the Biden administration for its slowness and restraint in sending weapons, the project follows in the footsteps of ““America First” and seeks to end the war with no clear winner or loser.
If Trump’s foreign policy motto is “Peace through strength”, In Ukraine, it seems that we are going to bet on the opposite. Kellogg offers a ceasefire that recognizes the territories occupied by Russia until now and establish a “security zone” defended by a multilateral force which prevents a reopening of the conflict at any time. Actually, It’s a partial surrender that Ukraine will only accept if it believes it will fight worse on the battlefield and force Putin to conquer as much ground as possible in the coming months to bring the fait accompli to the negotiating table.
Such a proposal, especially if Kyiv excludes it, would test Europe’s ability to maintain its support for its ally Ukrainian without the umbrella of the United States and directly confronted by Russian imperialism.
The current situation on the front, in the midst of the Russian offensive in Donetsk and with signs of extension to Zaporizhzhia, is not ideal for the interests of President Zelensky… but abandoning one’s own territories could be considered treason tens of thousands of deaths during these three years of conflict and would of course end his political career.
Seeking a middle ground, Ukraine’s leader said Friday he would be willing to negotiate – not cede – Russian-occupied territories. if in exchange Ukraine’s entry into NATO is guaranteed and the Atlantic Alliance’s protection of disputed areas that are currently still under kyiv’s control. It is impossible for Russia to agree to such a thing and it does not appear that the United States will show any interest.
Russian economic problems
We are having the same problem with the “security zone” and with the “multilateral force” who should defend him. Russia will always object to being an army of Western powers and the UN has already demonstrated in too many scenarios that, despite the goodwill and heroism of its soldiers, the means are insufficient. If they are not enough to control Hezbollah, they will hardly be enough to control the Russian army in the event of non-compliance with the pacts. The Minsk precedent is too recent and Putin has taken it upon himself to shout from the rooftops that the annexation of Russian-speaking Ukraine is an existential question. Existential questions, by definition, cannot be debated.
A bust of Soviet Union founder Vladimir Lenin was damaged in the rubble at the site of the missile attack that hit central Kharkiv this week.
Reuters
To seat the Russians at the table, we must not only guarantee them that they will be able to keep what they have plundered, but also part of the economic sanctions should be lifted. As we have said, the Russian war economy triggered inflation, which in turn devalued the currency and caused loans to exceed 25% interest, making life very difficult for families in the country. middle class, drawn into a vicious circle which is beginning to remind us of this. Soviet times.
At the time, Putin calls fall of USSR ‘most tragic moment of the 20th century’ and attributed it to reasons of economic stagnation due to excessive investment in defense. It is curious that, more than thirty years later, he made the same mistakes without anyone warning him. According to American intelligence, the autocrat’s solitude is total and he has virtually no contact with a minimal group of advisors who, in reality, are little more than devoted courtiers. No one wants to see their helicopter explode in mid-flight or risk their privileged position.
The carrot and the stick, Kremlin version
This is not to say that Putin has lost his ability to both threaten and seduce. In statements to the Russian press, the autocrat warned this Friday that he could attack kyiv at any time with his new hypersonic missile. This is somewhat empty rhetoric, since Moscow has always had hypersonic missiles of all types with sufficient range to reach kyiv, with or without a nuclear warhead. In fact, attacks on kyiv have been constant during these three years of war, so it must be understood that the obsessive use of the word “Oreshnik” has more to do with internal propaganda than anything else.
Of course, in addition to the stick, Putin knew how to take the carrot out for a walk. When asked about the president-elect of the United States, he said he seemed “pretty smart and experienced.” Much of Trump’s fascination with the Russian leader has to do with his authoritarian view of politicswhich also explains his good relations in the past with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un. The other part is a question of ego: Trump always boasts that Putin speaks highly of him and that is already a reason for respect and admiration.
In any case, it remains to be seen to what extent the United States will distance itself from Ukraine and NATO and to what extent Russia is able to continue a military operation now that another front is opened in Syria, with the siege of Aleppo by Islamist rebel forces. It will also be important to know what Trump means by “peace” and, of course, what he means by “force.” Giving territory to an invading force and distancing yourself from whatever comes next doesn’t seem to fit any definition.
