The massacre carried out by Hamas on a day like this a year ago, when the terrorist organization’s militants claimed the lives of some 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped 250 people, exposed the failures of Israel’s security system.
Since then, Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal has been to restore deterrence. Thus, last month, the war effort shifted from Gaza, where the offensive remains stalled, to Lebanon, to dismantle Hezbollah’s military structure.
By opening another front with Iran’s most powerful satellite, Israel has begun a new phase of the offensive that seeks to expand its security by imposing a buffer border, and thus regain citizens’ confidence in its defense forces. .
But this reestablishment of Israeli intimidation capacity against its rivals had the collateral effect of leaving the Middle East on the brink of a regional war, after Iran stopped hiding behind its proxies and launched a missile attack on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem last Tuesday, in response to the decapitation of Hezbollah.
Netanyahu clearly laid out his strategy: achieve peace by force, through the definitive neutralization of the threat posed by its enemieswhatever the humanitarian cost that such an objective entails.
And it may be that by dismantling the “axis of resistance,” Israel has somehow managed to turn the situation around and reveal Iran’s weakness. But even if she had managed to reach a new balance, how long could it last?
While hope grew midway through the conflict for a ceasefire in Gaza, Netanyahu’s commitment to a program of total demilitarization of Israel’s border threats seems to have definitively moved away from diplomatic channels. And with it, the two-state solution that Spain advocated, arguably prematurely.
While there remain nearly a hundred hostages in Gaza, social anger over the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust remains burning. A bellicose climate has established itself in Israel, encouraging escalation, and its leaders have come to view any call for peace as a scandal. The Israeli government’s repeated disregard for ceasefire proposals has led to various clashes with international organizations such as the International Court in The Hague or the UN.
Netanyahu only wants Israel’s enemies to recognize the existence and legitimacy of the Jewish state. And to achieve this, the objective of an overhaul of the regional order has been set, in a demonstration of ambition whose excesses can end up working to its disadvantage.
Beyond domestic political motivations and pressure from the most radical, the cost-benefit calculation of this aspiration seems erroneous. Perpetual disarmament of the enemies of the Jewish state is chimerical, while obstinacy in imposing peace can have the counterproductive effect of hindering the advent of a stable order.
Most analysts agree that, rather than shifting the regional balance in Israel’s favor, the only thing Netanyahu is likely to achieve is a temporary lockdown.
Instead of wasting time and forcing a coercion that will continue to fuel the boomerang of hatredit would be more reasonable for Israel to explore formulas that would guarantee a stable security horizon. And that includes the need for a post-war plan for Gaza, beyond an occupation that would perpetuate the spiral of violence.
It is true that the first to have prevented a diplomatic solution was Hamas (instigated by Iran), by provoking Israel’s response with its massacre, in order to boycott the Abraham Accords, which constituted an embryo of pacification in the region.
But this does not mean giving up on a lasting geopolitical settlement, since the alternative is endless escalation and the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians like last year.
9/11 Offers a Lesson Israel Can Learn From. The United States was also traumatized by the worst attack in its history, but the American government took advantage of the circumstance to try to change the situation. status quo in the Middle East ended with the failure and disaster of Afghanistan.
In fact, the United States will continue to play a fundamental role in sponsoring a more moderate approach that would reverse the escalation. The result of the November elections will therefore be decisive for the future of the conflict.
