Saxony and Thuringia are two relatively sparsely populated eastern German states with limited economic weight within the country. Both territories have fewer than five million voting inhabitants. To put this in perspective, the population of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, with around 18 million inhabitants, is larger than that of the five eastern states that formed the territory of the now defunct German Democratic Republic (GDR).
Despite all this, Sunday’s regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia threaten to generate a political shock of such magnitude that it could seriously undermine Germany’s current coalition government, made up of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is fighting to win the elections in both German states. In Saxony, the CDU is aiming for first place, but polls put the AfD above 30% and very close to the conservatives. In Thuringia, it will probably be the party that gets the most votes. The question is whether it will be able to govern, given that the other parties have so far ruled out the possibility of collusion with the party led by Björn Höcke, the leader of the most radical wing of the AfD who openly supports a political party with ethnic nationalism that borders on neo-Nazism. Against the backdrop of all this, there is the recent jihadist attack in Solingen, which could further encourage the protest vote in favor of the AfD, something that is not yet reflected in the polls.
The other force that will emerge victorious from the polls will be the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW for its acronym in German): the young party founded last January, which bears the name of the former deputy of Die Linke and former leader of the Marxist party. -The Leninist organization Communist Platform will enter the two regional parliaments with a double-digit result, according to the polls. In Thuringia, the BSW is close to 20% and could even be the second most voted force ahead of the Christian Democrats of the CDU.
With a left-wing and conservative economic policy proposal on the issue of immigration, Wagenknecht has managed to reach a significant layer of the electorate dissatisfied with the economic situation and prospects. The discontent is particularly visible in East Germany, whose electorate has historically tended to use the vote to express its disagreement, for example, with certain failed aspects of German reunification.
Migration, Energy and Ukraine
Three issues marked the election campaign in Saxony and Thuringia: immigration policy – a debate encouraged by the various jihadist attacks suffered by Germany in recent times –, energy policy – the end of the arrival of Russian gas has fuelled inflation and hit the industry of both states – as well as the war in Ukraine.
The AfD and Wagenknecht’s party stand for peace and openly support halting arms supplies to Ukraine, exploring negotiations with the Kremlin and importing Russian gas and oil again, messages that resonate strongly in eastern Germany, which has a greater cultural, economic and historical proximity to Russia than the western part of the country.
On all three issues, the three parties in the federal government coalition in Berlin, led by Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have a bad hand. In Saxony, the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals are fighting to get past the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary representation. In Thuringia, the FDP liberals are expected to be left out, while the SPD and Greens get between 4 and 6 percent of the vote. So if election night really goes badly for the federal government parties, the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals could be excluded from both state parliaments. In that case, the viability of the so-called “traffic light coalition” would become virtually impossible. Bringing forward the federal elections, scheduled for September next year, would become virtually inevitable.
Another party that will be affected by these regional elections will be Die Linke. The post-communists, partly heirs of the single party of the GDR, could be excluded from the Saxon parliament. In Thuringia, the only federal state in Germany whose government is led by a Die Linke prime minister (Bodo Ramelow), the post-communists could lose more than 15 points compared to the last regional elections in 2019.
These results are particularly harsh for a party that had made East Germany its main electoral stronghold. A significant part of Die Linke’s historic electorate is turning to the extreme right or to Wagenknecht’s party.
The consequences
Last Thursday, the three parties in Scholz’s government announced an agreement to tighten the criteria for granting welfare to asylum seekers and to speed up the deportations of foreigners who have been refused this aid, among other measures aimed at toughening immigration policy during the election period.
They also agreed on an absolute ban on carrying knives or other weapons at public events. The attack in Solingen was the trigger for this announcement, but no one is unaware of the poor results that election polls predict for the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals in Saxony and Thuringia. The AfD and, to some extent, the BSW have managed to introduce their discourse on immigration into the Scholz government’s agenda and into the public debate. The result of the far right on Sunday will most likely accelerate this dynamic.
After the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the parties represented in the two state parliaments will have a difficult task ahead of them: forming coalition governments. Everything indicates that neither party will be able to govern alone. Given that no party is willing to form a coalition with the far-right AfD, the parliamentary arithmetic will be diabolical.
In Saxony, the polls suggest two scenarios: the continuation of the current tripartite between the CDU, the Greens and the Social Democrats – if the latter two manage to remain in Parliament – or the formation of an unprecedented coalition between the CDU and the Wagenknecht party.
In Thuringia, according to the polls, only one viable option appears: a coalition between the conservative CDU, the Wagenknecht coalition and the SPD, also unprecedented. The CDU excludes the possibility of governing with both the AfD and Die Linke.
In any case, and even if the far right remains in opposition, if the AfD wins a third of the seats in Thuringia, its votes will be essential for measures that require a two-thirds majority, such as calling new elections, changes to the Saxon constitution or the election of the president of the regional constitutional court. In other words, if the far right reaches a third of parliamentary representation, the other parties will be forced to collaborate in one way or another with the AfD to avoid an institutional blockage.
At the federal level, the other question is what the Bundesrat – the upper house in which the 16 states are represented – will look like after these elections. The entry of Wagenknecht’s party into the two regional parliaments and possibly into the regional governments, in coalition with the CDU, could change the balance of power within a chamber that the Scholz government needs to implement its laws.
Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, the elections in Saxony and Thuringia will mark the coming year for Berlin’s “traffic light coalition” until the next federal election. The remainder of the legislative term could become too long for the Scholz government.
