This Tuesday, Hezbollah announced the appointment of Naim Qassem as new leader, replacing the murdered Hassan Nasrallah. Initially, the leaders of the terrorist group were leaning towards Hachem Safieddinebut the Israeli army killed him last week, even before the decision was made official. By way of welcome, the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallantpublished a photograph of Qasem on his social networks with the text: “Temporary appointment: not for long”.
The threat could not be more explicit against a man who is not exactly a newcomer. Naim Qasem is part of the old guard: he joined the militia as one of its founders during the First Lebanon War and has held the position of number two for over thirty years, first with Abbas Al-Musawi and later with Nasrallah. In recent weeks, he has served as the group’s spokesperson and has the difficult task of ensuring the survival and reorganization of Hezbollah from top to bottom.
It is no coincidence that the leadership of the Shiite group chose a man who is not very charismatic, but who knows the organization by heart and who has led the political branch in Beirut alongside Nasrallah for years. Beyond the land clashes taking place in southern Lebanon, we must recall the series of Israeli attacks last month which killed a good number of Hezbollah’s leaders and middle management, attacking their communicators and their walkie talkies.
Although the terrorist group has demonstrated an unexpected resilience, standing up to Israel in its ground incursion and even attacking the other side of the border with its missiles, losing so many people requires reorganization and granting of new powers. In principle, no one better than Qasem for this. In fact, despite the threats, if Israel ever considers negotiating some sort of ceasefire, the new leader may not be such a bad conversationalist.
Another Sinwar takes charge of Hamas
The situation is worse, for example, in Gaza, where rumor has it that Mohamed Sinwarbrother of the murdered Hamas leader, took control of the gang.
Given the dramatic situation in the Gaza Strip and the weakening of the terrorist group, we cannot speak of an official appointment, but rather of a violent takeover, which is not too strange: Mohamed Sinwar He had worked alongside his brother for years and is responsible for much of the construction of underground tunnels to protect militants and hide weapons and money.
The only good news about Sinwar’s potential leadership is that if there’s anyone who might know where the hostages are, it’s him. After more than a year and given the state of destruction in Gaza, it is very difficult to determine the whereabouts of those kidnapped on October 7 and exactly how many are still alive. The bad news is that, if his future depends on Sinwar, we can’t expect too many changes from his brother’s maximalist policies: or withdrawal of Israeli troops or nothing at all.
This means that all the peace plans presented this week – Egypt proposed a forty-eight hour truce on Monday, the United States proposed a four-week deal on Tuesday – have little sign of coming to fruition. If Hamas does not relax its demands for Israeli withdrawal and if Israel is not willing to have its soldiers leave the Gaza Strip until the terrorist group is completely destroyed, we will find ourselves in the same circle vicious than the one we have experienced in recent months. No matter how many times they meet in Cairo or Doha, facing the podium, an agreement is impossible.
China and Russia consolidate their alliance with Iran
Tension does not seem to be easing between Israel and Iran either, after last Saturday’s attack on Tehran and various military targets by the IDF. Even if, strictly speaking, it was a response to the Iranian bombings of October 1 and was far from the apocalyptic threats of the first days, the ayatollahs’ regime insists that it reserves the right to respond again in the manner and at the time he deems appropriate. . Herzi Halevihead of the Israeli armed forces, used a similar tone, warning that if Iran continued its attacks, the response this time would be much more forceful and that it would show no restraint.
These brawls on Tuesday are a continuation of the very tense plenary session of the United Nations Security Council last Monday. In this one, The Iranian Ambassador and the Israeli Ambassador dedicated themselves to exchanging reproaches and threats. The meeting was convened by China and Russia, Iran’s allies, and by Algeria, the only Arab member currently present on the Council. The Chinese and Russian ambassadors agreed to condemn Israel’s attitude and its recent attack. None of them wanted to comment on Iranian actions against Jewish soil.
Relations between the three countries, with the external addition of North Korea, appear to have become even closer after last week’s BRICS group meeting in Kazan. In fact, Iran is already part of this group, which returns the regime in Tehran to international normality and presents Israel with the challenge of confronting an enemy with such powerful allies.
