In the period from January to July 2024, Azerbaijan’s foreign trade turnover amounted to $21,768.43 million, which is 16.8 percent less than in the same period last year. This is according to information released by the State Customs Committee. Over the past year, exports from the country as a whole decreased by 28.2 percent and amounted to $12,900.98 million. On the contrary, imports increased by 8.2 percent to $8,867 million. Although the foreign trade turnover generated a positive balance of $4,033.78 million, it was 2.4 times less than in the same period last year. As we can see from the figures, Azerbaijan’s foreign trade turnover has decreased. Experts associate this process with the decline in our oil production. How long will the decline in our oil production last? What should be done to prevent this process?
“Caspian” The newspaper sought answers to these questions in its next article.
The price of energy products has fallen
According to expert economist Vugar Bayramov, oil production has decreased and gas production has increased. However, prices have changed in the opposite direction:
“One of the main reasons for the decline in foreign trade turnover is the lower price of energy products on the world market than a year earlier. In particular, there was a sharp drop in the price of gas. As a result, this affected the total value of exports and there were declines. In addition, in the last period, there was a decline in oil and gas production. In the first half of the year, gas production increased by 0.6 percent. The smaller declines in gas on the world market are also recorded in our revenues.”
According to him, it is necessary to stabilize oil production and increase gas production:
“President Ilham Aliyev The Russian Federation announced the prevention and stabilization of the decline in oil production as one of the main goals of the new era. This is important for Azerbaijan. In the present case, only increases in gas production are expected. If we take into account that last year Azerbaijan transported 12 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, this year this figure will approach 13 billion cubic meters. By 2027, this figure is expected to reach 20 billion cubic meters. In this regard, the current goal is to achieve increases in gas production. The main goal of oil production is stabilization. Appropriate work is underway in this direction.
We are looking forward to a new platform.
Energy expert Zafar Valiyev said there are reasons to reduce oil production:
“The peak of oil production in Azerbaijan occurred in 2009-2010. In those years, the annual oil production in Azerbaijan was about 50 million tons. The richest field was “Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli”. About 600 million tons of oil were produced from here. 2010- This is natural, because the geological structure of each field has recoverable oil reserves. After a while, the fields begin to decline.
According to Z. Valiyev, no increase in oil production in Azerbaijan is expected in the coming years:
“However, the commissioning of a new production platform in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli block may create some stability in oil production. After that, work will continue to increase production volumes from these fields. However, it is impossible to achieve large production volumes.”
The expert also stated that two of our fields remain unexploited.
“One of them is the Karabakh field. The other is the Kepaz field, which we share with Turkmenistan. The Turkmen side calls it Sardar. Once the legal status of the Caspian Sea is determined, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan will jointly exploit this field. However, there are still technical problems related to the start of production. If these two fields are put into industrial use, then it will be possible to create stability in oil production in Azerbaijan, because we do not have such rich fields.”
Gas production will increase
Z. Valiyev also commented on the forecasts of increasing gas production. He noted that our gas fields are currently at their maximum level:
“In the coming years, the Shah Deniz gas field will see annual growth until 2027. If the Absheron field’s production is 1.5 billion cubic meters, then in the coming years it may reach 5 billion cubic meters. However, there is a gap between oil and gas prices on the world market. A barrel of oil costs about $82-85, a thousand cubic meters of natural gas costs $354. That is, gas prices are cheap compared to oil.”
