Iran released at least Tuesday evening two salvos of ballistic missiles against the urban centers of Tel Aviv And Jerusalemas well as other areas of Israel, including the occupied territory of West Bankwhere a Palestinian civilian died. In total, it is estimated that there could be approximately 200 shells those who reached Jewish territory, although the exact number is unknown and, above all, the number of missiles shot down as they passed through Jordan and the Mediterranean by American, British and French forces is unknown.
IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari thanked his allies for their collaboration and took the opportunity to reiterate that Israel reserves the right to respond “when and how it wishes” following a plan that would already be established in advance.
For their part, both US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US National Defense Advisor Jake Sullivan, They called the interception of Iranian missiles a ‘success’ and they warned of the possible consequences of this “escalation” of the ayatollahs’ regime, without however wanting to go into the details of these consequences.
They also did not want to establish an official position on behalf of the president. Bidenwho until this weekend reiterated his confidence in a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. Sources consulted by CNN indicate that although there was initially some unease within the US administration that it had not been consulted by Israel regarding its operations in Lebanon, no one now objects. to these actions. Actually, Blinken refused to compare Israeli offensive against Hezbollah with Iranian attackensuring that these were completely different issues.
The bombing coincided with an attack in the Jaffa neighborhood of Tel Aviv. Two terrorists of Palestinian origin, armed with a knife and an assault rifle, they killed six people and injured nine others near a tram station. In total, this makes approximately an hour of terror at a much different speed and intensity than on April 13, when Iran primarily used drones, which take much longer to reach their objective. The fact that the Tehran regime previously warned the United States and Russia about the attack suggests that it did not intend to cause excessive damage either.
Israel’s options
The question right now is How will Israel react to the Iranian attack?. In April, they chose to follow American advice and launch a quasi-symbolic attack. This time, the United States itself has been warning Iran for some time that the response to a possible attack would not be the same as then, in the hope of deterring the new president. Massoud Pezeshkian. In fact, in his speech to the UN, Pezeshkian adopted a relatively low profile regarding the death of Hassan Nasrallah and even the Ayatollah himself Ali Khamenei had left the responsibility of avenging its leader in the hands of Hezbollah.
Israel has before it the opportunity it has dreamed of for years. The threat from Hamas is minimal, as is that from Hezbollah. To some extent, it can focus its efforts on Iran without fear of consequences from third parties, beyond a stray missile that the Houthis might launch from Yemen. Few doubt that the response will match what was experienced in Gaza and Beirut. The question is whether this will be a series of precision attacks against Iran’s leaders, whether they will focus on nuclear development facilities or whether they will prefer to strike oil terminals to plunge Iran in a terrible economic and energy crisis. A combination of the three options should not be excluded.
Iran prepares ‘imminent’ ballistic missile attack on Israel, US says
Israel has two objectives: in the short and medium term, end Iran’s nuclear program. Experts point out that within one or two years, Iran will have the capacity to build an atomic bomb and no one believes that it is not interested in it, much less with foreign support from Russia. If they miss this opportunity, the next attack may not be with conventional weapons. Iran is a theocracy that does not understand deterrence or mutually assured destruction because its kingdom is not of this world. This makes it a particularly dangerous country.
In the long term, Israel and the United States want to overthrow the Khamenei regime and help progressives take power. Iran is plunged into a deep economic crisis and social unrest is enormous, with continued protests throughout 2023 ending in a wave of repression particularly targeting university students and women. It is no coincidence that, this very Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message in English to the Iranian people to assure them that Israel was with them in their fight.
The role of Russia and China in all this
The Israeli response will therefore aim to decapitate the Iranian regime as it decapitated Hamas and Hezbollah. In this way, perhaps, we can initiate a counter-revolution that would lead to a reasonable state with which to negotiate peace under certain conditions, which is impossible at present. This is obviously a very ambitious goal, but there will be no other opportunity to try like this. The only way for Israel to sustainably guarantee its security it means surrounding yourself with strong states that do not fall into extremist terrorist temptation and with those that can be negotiated, such as Egypt and Jordan.
That said, one wonders what the role of the world superpowers would be in an operation of this type. Arab countries would not take a dim view of an insurrection in Iran or even a military defeat of a regime they have hated since its founding. The United States is not going to go to direct war with Iran, but it is also not going to put obstacles in the way of Israel at this stage, regardless of what its authorities say publicly one month before the presidential elections.
The big question is how Russia and China will react.. The presence of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Tehran on the eve of the attack on Israel cannot be a coincidence. Less so when its declared mission was to “strengthen relations between the two countries”. A relationship that already has several mutual military aid agreements and has seen how Iran sent munitions and missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine. It is likely that the ayatollahs then understood that they could turn to Putin in the event of an Israeli attack. This is because they don’t know Putin, who will only do what is in his own interest.
For his part, China is hostile to all Israeli actions since October 7 last year. President Xi Jinping himself condemned the incursion of Jewish troops into Lebanon on Monday. Today, like Russia, they are unlikely to risk open conflict with Israel to defend a government that neither suits them nor suits them. Chinese investments in Israel are numerous and Xi has always stood out for his great practicality. Israel believes that nothing ties its hands and that all it has to do is find the right moment for a counterattack that many describe as terrible.
