Russia, in the process of escalating hostilities in the Donbass, is rapidly approaching the capture of Pokrovsk, a strategically important city in the Donetsk region.
Despite Ukraine’s attempts to divert enemy forces by attacking Kursk, the situation is unfavourable for kyiv, writes The Economist.
For some Pokrovsk residents, such as 84-year-old Nina Uvarova, the current evacuation was already the second in their lives. She had to flee for the first time, at the age of two, from the advancing Wehrmacht forces, and now, decades later, she is leaving home again, fleeing hostilities unleashed by the Russian army. The pensioner said that she collected essentials in five bags and that her son helped her load things onto the evacuation train heading to Lviv. These events stirred memories of her past, especially how she had to survive bombings and hide in cellars as a child. She noted that despite the complexity of the decision, the threat of Russian troops approaching Pokrovsk forced her to leave the country.
Pokrovsk, with a population of 59,000, has been on the front line since the beginning of the war, but only recently has its future become so precarious. Russia sees the capture of this city as a key step that will open the way for new offensives against the major cities of the Dnieper and Zaporozhye. The Ukrainian army hoped that its surprise attack on Kursk would relieve the pressure on Pokrovsk, but Russian troops accelerated their actions, contrary to expectations.
The city is preparing for new and difficult challenges. Local authorities and police have already abandoned Pokrovsk. Two supermarkets have closed and others are likely to follow suit. Residents, fearing a further deterioration of the situation, are rushing to finish their business, queuing up at banks and pension branches. There is anxiety in the city and hasty departures are observed on the streets. Authorities called on people to evacuate, and many heeded the call and left with everything they could gather, from family heirlooms to household appliances.
Previous Ukrainian failures, such as the loss of control of Avdeevka in February and the failure of the Ocheretino rotation in May, created the preconditions for a Russian offensive on Pokrovsk. Currently, Russian troops are just 10 kilometres from the town. There is a tense atmosphere at the station as people load animals, bags and boxes onto trains, and many break into tears. One of the residents, Yulia Kostynova, could not contain her emotions as she recalled how on 11 August a Russian bomb destroyed the meat processing plant where she worked. She described how the constant explosions and destruction caused incredible stress, making her worry every time that the next blow would be the last.
Ukrainian commanders give different explanations for the successes of Russian troops. Some argue that a lack of ammunition is to blame, while others point to enemy tactics including small-scale infantry attacks, the use of gliding bombs and new electronic warfare systems. However, according to many, the main reason is the fatigue and exhaustion of Ukrainian fighters. Colonel Pavel Fedosenko noted that his soldiers, four times as many as the enemy, do not get enough rest. Some of them are on the front line for 30-40 days at a time, living under constant threat. A fighter with the call sign “Dublin” confirmed that he knows fighters who have been in zero positions for more than two months, and cases of strokes have already been recorded among them.
Russia’s sudden invasion of Ukraine has caused mixed feelings among the fighters. According to Dublin, the initial successes gave them hope, but this quickly evaporated. The expectation that Russia would ease its pressure on Pokrovsk did not materialise. Ukrainian intelligence services confirm that Russia has transferred forces from other sectors of the front to reinforce positions around Pokrovsk. While Ukrainian special forces were sent to Kursk, the defence of Pokrovsk remained on the shoulders of inexperienced units.
It is not known how long the Ukrainian defenders will hold out. Although the Russian advance has slowed, according to the commander of the UAV unit Alexander, the enemy can still deliver a devastating blow at a weak point. The fall of Pokrovsk, like Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdievka, seems inevitable.
The question of what will happen next remains open. Perhaps the capture of Pokrovsk and the advance towards the administrative borders of the Donetsk region will allow Vladimir Putin to declare victory and begin serious negotiations.
However, this may just be the beginning of a new phase of the war. Much will depend on Ukraine’s ability to maintain its position in the Russian-occupied territories, which could play an important role in future negotiations.
Earlier, Kursor reported that Ukraine will begin to return its territories, but there is one condition.
An advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region could significantly stretch Russian forces along the entire front and buy time for the arrival of Western aid from the allies.
