Now that, after the summer holidays, a new education begins – mainly academic, but also economic and political – it is appropriate to remember what position you are in. the economic situation. So, even if it seems to resist in the short term, the national economy is very degraded from a structural point of view. He opted for short term economy based on huge public spending, which leads to an exponential growth of debt and represents a brake on future growth. The Spanish economy is only subject to public spending and the good performance so far of the external sector, but the composition of growth is unhealthy, with a lot of spending and low consumption and investment. The latter remains lower, in real terms, than pre-pandemic levels. For its part, the labour market, even if the way of counting the unemployed is changed, does not really create jobs, but rather distributes them in the best case, with the sad European leadership in this area. general and youth unemployment rates. Likewise, Spanish productivity remains low, and the voracious increase in taxes and social security contributions Social security This is suffocating many SMEs to the point of closure.
The national threat is that of unhealthy growth, as I have already said, because if the budgetary rules mean that public spending must decrease, which is essential, it is essential that it decreases, and the foreign sector ceases to contribute as positively as so far, due to the loss of competitiveness of our companies and the decrease in income from our main trading partners and source markets, the economy will fall, because the government, with its interventionist economic policy, This has wiped out much of the productive economy, making our economy unfortunately supported by government spending rather than being sustainable on its own.
Regarding the international context, Europe I can’t get out of his atony and in the United States there is a certain probability of recession, We will see whether this ultimately comes true or not. Moreover, the wars that exist today, with a non-negligible probability of entrenchment or aggravation, can provoke market tensions and a deterioration in expectations, which has a negative impact on the economy. The outcome of the elections in the United States is also at the center of possible economic disruption, since both options are not positive for the economy: Asset, for its protectionism; Harris, for its very left-wing approach, which poses a high risk for economic development.
Regarding reforms, in Spain it is urgent a deep reform eliminate obstacles, drastically reduce public spending, propose a zero-based budget to safeguard essential services and undertake a tax reduction that stimulates the economy, in addition to giving Spain back the certainty, the legal security, that was put into question by the government’s attempt to control all powers.
The most worrying data At the national level, these are those of the composition of growth, because it has a short and artificial path, based on public spending, which translates into a debt of 1,625 billion euros, with a structural deficit that amounts to 4%, and with a stifling interventionism in the economya: sector-specific taxes; dangerously exorbitantly increasing the minimum wage; increasing social security contributions, which reduces the competitiveness of companies; Related to the above, a counterproductive reform of the pension system, which increases its unsustainability; interventionism in the housing and rental market, which intensifies the problem of access to housing and its prices; attempt to reverse the 2012 labor reform, increasing the rigidity of severance pay, by wanting to increase it.
In the face of this, a whole reformist policy must be deployed, as I have already said, obstacle removallimited spending, low taxes, budget surplus to reduce debt in absolute terms, liberalization of markets and increased legal certainty if we want the economy to avoid risks and grow solidly.
