The United States is preparing to return to the polls with the same uncertainty as four years ago: a tight race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, who took over just three months ago after the Joe Biden’s resignation from his candidacy for president.
These are the keys to not getting lost in the next elections.
When are the American elections?
The date will be November 5, since tradition dictates that they are celebrated on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November, every four years. Some states are opening the mail-in voting process weeks early.
As usual, the media will have a crucial role, being those who project during the election night or in the hours that follow who will be the winner of the elections, since the authorities take weeks to formalize the results.
The winner will begin a four-year term in the White House beginning in January 2025. On the 20th of that month, known as “Inauguration Day,” the president-elect takes office in Congress and makes a short trip to the White House.
Why elections take place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November?
Presidential elections always take place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The reason why the Americans established it this way dates back to the 19th century and responds to practical reasons of the time. Society at that time was mainly focused on agriculture, so November seemed ideal: the harvest would already be over, but it wouldn’t be too cold.
As for Tuesday’s elections, they have a religious connotation. Calculating that it might take a day’s walk to reach the voting point, it was decided that Sunday could not be a good day, as the Jews would not come because they would be celebrating the vote. Sabbath. Likewise, it could not be a Monday either, because Sunday was the day of rest for Christians. Wednesday being market day, Tuesday seemed to be the best option.
How does the American electoral system work?
The winner of the election is not the one who gets the most votes in the entire country. During the elections, members of the Electoral College, the body that will then elect the president, will be chosen.
The Electoral College is made up of 538 delegates, which is equivalent to the number of members of the House of Representatives (435), plus the number of senators (100) and the three delegates from Washington, D.C., who have no representatives in either ‘one nor the other. bedroom. In total, you must obtain half plus one of the votes, or at least 270, to win the elections.
These 538 members are proportionally represented by the 50 states and the District of Columbia. For example, this year, Pennsylvania distributes 19 electoral votes, while Arizona gives 11, Texas 40, New York 28 and the District of Columbia three.
Whoever wins in every state except Maine and Nebraska wins all the electors, according to the principle of winner takes all. Or what amounts to the same thing: even if the difference is only a matter of a few votes, whoever manages to win wins all the delegates from that state.
It is for this reason that the elections are really at stake in a handful of key, decisive or “hinge” states, those called Swing States.
What are the Swing States?
There are seven key states in which citizens’ votes will decide the outcome of the election: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Of the seven Swing StatesPennsylvania is the one that this year has the key that will open the doors to the Oval Office. At the state level, there are also a number of cities and counties that will decide who wins in each state. This year, the Associated Press estimates that Wayne County – home to Detroit, Michigan –, Mecklenburg County – home to Charlotte, North Carolina – and Fulton County – home to Atlanta, Georgia ) – will be some of the places where this will need to be closely monitored on election night. In the case of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the counties surrounding the cities of Milwaukee and Philadelphia will also play a crucial role.
In Arizona, as happened in the last elections, Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located, will be decisive in deciding once again the color with which the state will be dyed. More than 60% of the votes cast in the 2020 election came from this county. In Nevada, the same thing happened in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located: more than two-thirds of Nevada’s votes came from that county.
In 2020, Biden managed to defeat Trump by around 10,000 votes in Arizona, and with that, he won all 11 electors in that state. Since 1996, no Democrat has succeeded in conquering this border state. swing state due to the likelihood of leaning towards one color or another.
In the other six key states, polls also show a tight race between Trump and Harris, so they are now considered swings. A few years ago, Ohio was known as the swing state par excellence, but in 2016 it ceased to be so with the victory of the Republican.
Who benefits from this system?
This winner-take-all logic and the historical fact that some rural states (which tend to vote Republican) have greater representation work in Trump’s favor.
For example, California, the most populous state that tends to vote Democratic, has 54 electoral votes to represent 39.24 million residents. In Wyoming, the least populous state that has historically voted Republican, about 578,000 people are represented by three electoral votes. In other words, a person’s vote in Wyoming counts 3.6 times more than a person’s vote in California.
And what happens in the event of a tie?
If you do the math, it’s easy to see that 538 is an even number and there could be a tie at 269 in the Electoral College.
Although this scenario is very unlikely to occur, the legislation already contemplates a solution. In this case, the House of Representatives would elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. The rules state that each state votes and that decision is decided by a majority of the members of Congress from each state. On the other hand, the Senate would choose the vice president from the two candidates with the most votes – there could be a situation where there is a president from one party and a vice president from another.
This situation has happened twice in US history. In 1801, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr received the same number of electoral votes. The House of Representatives then had to vote 36 times in a row over five days until Jefferson received a majority in favor.
But wait, are there any other candidates besides Trump and Harris?
Beyond Trump and Harris, candidates of the country’s two main parties, there are also, for the 2024 presidential election, candidates from third parties who could surprise in key states. In each swing state There is at least one independent or third-party candidate on the ballot. None of them will come close to the White House, but they could have effects on the trajectories of Trump and Harris.
Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, and Robert F. Kennedy, a former independent candidate who now supports Trump, are among the two best-known names. Stein is popular among Arab voters because of his stance on Israel’s war in Gaza and two weeks before the election, a poll by the New York Times gives him about 1% support nationally. The same goes for Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate. Their presence on the ballot in just a few states could take away enough votes from major party candidates to tip the scales of the Electoral College and the election.
