Although October 7 was the largest attack in Israel’s history, the day also marked the beginning of the end of the so-called “axis of resistance,” a network of alliances that Iran has woven since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and which serves to meet its foreign policy objectives. Far from being a Palestinian issue, October 7 was a declaration of war on Israel on four fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran. Each of these four fronts is controlled by Iran itself or by a member of the resistance axis.
Last July, Israel gained some control over security in the Gaza Strip, allowing it to focus on other fronts, notably in the north, in Lebanon. It is precisely in the Land of the Cedar that the terrorist strategies which cost the lives of 1,400 people were coordinated and where 9,000 of the 20,000 missiles that fell on Israel since October 7 were launched.
For these two reasons, Israel is developing a military operation aimed at bring down both the infrastructure and the leadership of the terrorist group that terrorizes the population of northern Israel, a population of which a very high percentage is Arab.
In addition to attacks on Hezbollah leadership and infrastructure, Israel attacked Hezbollah headquarters. The Houthis in Yementhe third of the groups which, with Hamas and Hezbollah, constitute the axis of the resistance.
If Israel attacked Gaza, Yemen or Lebanon, it is worth asking why Iran launched an attack with 200 missiles on Israeli territory, since Jerusalem did not attack Iranian territory itself.
In fact, on this occasion, Iran was not even the scene of actions that ended the lives of leaders such as Al-Souri or Nasrallah.
The answer is very simple: Iran is trying, on the one hand, maintain your influence on groups which constitute the axis of resistance and, on the other hand, cover reviews to an outdated regime, incapable of confronting a state that Tehran has made its public enemy number one: Israel. Let’s analyze these two arguments in more detail:
First of all, it must be said that Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis see with helplessness how Israel attacks its infrastructure and eliminates its leaders under the astonished gaze of the one who had proclaimed itself its protector, Iran. In the case of the Houthis, the Yemeni group adopted an anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli narrative with the sole aim of gaining Tehran’s support, which now poses more problems than benefits.
Second, we cannot forget that Iran is a revolutionary regime, aligned with Russia and Venezuela, which is experiencing structural problems due to its base on a planned economy and its poor foreign policy priorities. Additionally, in recent months, Iranians have seen how their government is more concerned with cracking down on women who wear the veil incorrectly than tracking down Mossad agents who operate freely in their territory.
In fact, the former Iranian president – Mahmoud Ahmadinejab – admitted that the group created to uncover Israeli agents in the Persian country was led by someone who was obeying orders from Jerusalem and not Tehran.
In this situation, the only thing Tehran is capable of doing is launching a shower of missiles which, although capable of destroying any country on Earth, will not cause the slightest damage to Israel. As happened in April 2023, when Iran attempted to avenge Haniya’s death, The 200 missiles launched by Tehran were intercepted in a very high percentage by the jewel of Israeli defense: the Iron Dome.
So, as we approach the year of captivity for the hundred or so people Hamas still holds in its lair, Israel has begun a new phase of its Operation Iron Swords, a phase that seeks to expand the security, or as we say in Hebrew, bitachon beyond its borders. the word bitachon that everyone who has been to Israel knows is very present in everyday life, this is linked to the concept trust.
With this new phase of Operation Iron Swords, Israel is not only seeking to increase bitachon or the confidence of its citizens in its defense forces, but also reduce the confidence of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in the one who proclaimed himself their protector: the Iran of the ayatollahs.
*** Alberto Priego is professor of international relations at the Pontifical University of Comillas.
